Trump blamed Iran for rising oil on Truth Social. Moody’s ruling on France is due tonight amid French debt jitters. The ECB meets Thursday, and the PCE inflation report lands October 29. Next week brings consumer confidence plus Visa, Coca-Cola, Boeing and UPS earnings on October 27, then the FOMC decision with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting after the close on October 28.
Week of October 23, 2026 · The CIO’s verdict
The long-term trend is still up and the S&P 500 sits above its 10-month average, so we stay invested — but the regime is shifting from Quad 2 toward Quad 3, so the portfolio leans defensive: quality, staples, health care, utilities and gold over rate-sensitive and cyclical risk.
Growth is slowing while inflation re-accelerates — that is Quad 3 — and Quad 4 is dominant across 2027. In the slowing-quad overlap, the assets that tend to win are gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis. Energy and power are a Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry. Long bonds are the 2027 prize once the hiking cycle credibly ends. We are underweight financials, discretionary ex-quality, high yield, leveraged loans and small caps.
Twenty-five durable compounders picked by the CIO and the head of portfolio management from the eleven desks’ Timeless 10 lists. Entered Friday, October 23, 2026. Next review: Friday, January 22, 2027. Non-US names (4 of 25, 16%) are outlined: TSM (Taiwan), ASML (Netherlands), AZN (United Kingdom), LIN (Ireland).
The CIO and Paul, head of portfolio management, introduce the 25 stocks the whole team would most comfortably own for the next twelve months — and how the track record will be kept.
Macro · Marco, Macro Strategist
The quad framework sorts the economy by two questions: is growth speeding up or slowing down, and is inflation cooling or re-accelerating? Where we are in that map decides what we own.
The easiest tape there is: the economy accelerates while price pressure fades.
A hot economy with rising inflation: real assets and cyclicals lead, duration suffers.
The hardest mix for most portfolios: growth slows while inflation re-accelerates.
Slowdown with cooling inflation: the bond market’s moment, and quality’s.
The data behind the quad call, as of the October 23, 2026 board unless a panel states otherwise. Every panel shows its value, its source and its date; no series is backfilled or estimated beyond what is stated.
A hold is about 91% priced for October 28, a December hike is widely expected and the December language is the event — which runs against the easing-by-mid-2027 framework.
Headline — Earnings-yield spread, October 23, 2026 close: what stocks pay you in current earnings yield over bonds today is effectively zero.
Forward P/E 20.3x · 10-year Treasury about 5.00% · as of the October 23, 2026 close
Correction: the previous 4.2% figure was that stale start-of-year vintage of the Damodaran implied premium — down to 3.70% by the start of October — and is superseded. It is not carried forward.
In plain terms, the two measures answer different questions: the spread is what stocks pay you in current earnings yield over bonds today — about nothing right now, so the case for owning stocks rests on future growth — while the implied premium is a cash-flow model estimate that also counts buybacks and assumed growth.
Chart restarted from these October 2026 readings and accumulates weekly from here. The old 4.2% starting point is not carried forward.
The team’s qualitative read, updated weekly. Drivers:
The highest since 1997.
Down from 4.6% in July and below the roughly 5.9% two-decade average.
Scope: This is Marco’s framework guidance for the current quad regime — which assets tend to win and lose in this regime — not a description of the Timeless portfolios’ actual holdings (those are on the Portfolios tab) nor of Paul’s asset-allocation model.
The economy is leaving the hot, reflationary Quad 2 regime and tipping into Quad 3: growth is slowing at the same time as inflation re-accelerates, with oil the swing factor. On our map, Quad 4 — slower growth with cooling inflation — is the dominant regime across 2027, which is why the portfolio is being tilted defensively before the turn, not after it.
The bond market is the smart market: it prices the real cost of capital and the true state of risk-taking. Fixed Income scores 59 of 100 (Neutral) — risk-free yield is genuinely attractive, securitized and floating-rate carry pays, but credit compensation is thin, which is exactly what a late-cycle, slowing-quad tape looks like. Bill’s read feeds this page every week.
The practical conclusion is the CIO’s verdict: stay invested — the long-term trend and the recession watch (all clear: 8 green, 0 amber, 0 red) do not argue for the sidelines — but hold the kind of assets that win if the slowing quads play out, and treat energy and power strength as something to harvest into, not chase.
Market Technicals · Trent, Technical Analyst (CMT)
Price leads fundamentals. The structure of the bull market is intact; the near-term internals say respect the tape, don’t chase it. Readings as of the October 23, 2026 close.
Everything on this tab is measured on the S&P 500 index itself — not on SPY. SPY only mirrors the index; every level, average and tripwire below is an index level.
Measured: the S&P 500 against its 10-month moving average, computed from month-end closes. The line sits at 7,230.78; the index closed October 23, 2026 at 7,623.68 — 5.4% above it — and is also above a rising 200-day average near 7,288.
Verdict: UP. Above the 10-month line is a structural bull market, and portfolios stay invested.
What flips it: a close below the 10-month line — particularly on a month-end closing basis — and portfolios get as defensive as possible. The October 30 month-end tripwire is about 7,274.
Measured: where the index sits inside its recent range, and whether momentum is resolving or still churning.
Verdict: NEUTRAL. The index has churned between roughly 7,500 and 7,800 since August without resolving either way.
What flips it: a weekly close above 7,800 resolves it up; a weekly close below 7,500 resolves it down.
Measured: the index against its 50-day and 100-day averages — the near-term trend and its first support shelf.
Verdict: DOWN. The index is below its 50-day average and testing the 100-day support shelf near 7,604.
What flips it: reclaiming the 50-day average flips it back up. Below 7,604, the next references are 7,507.77, then 7,237–7,313.
UP
The structural bull market is intact.
NEUTRAL
Momentum is flattening as the regime turns.
DOWN
A near-term pullback is underway inside the uptrend.
The 200-day breadth count is S&P 500 members — 283 of 497 tracked, ChartRow data, October 22, 2026 close. It has narrowed hard: down from 70–75% in midsummer and near 80% in spring. Advance/decline is measured on the NYSE; the summation index ($NASI) and oscillator ($NAMO) are Nasdaq series. Figures that could not be verified to desk standard — percent above the 20-day and 50-day averages, October 23 net advances, and October 23 new high/low counts — are marked UNKNOWN, never filled with a guess.
Capitulation Score: 7 / 100 — not armed. The Washout Watch only arms when the S&P 500 is at least 8% below its 52-week high; at these levels it isn’t. A score of 70+ would mark a washout worth buying; 85+ is historic. Today it says: no panic, no capitulation, no signal.
The score is not one metric. It is built from three buckets — breadth 40 points, sentiment 35, tape and volatility 25 — plus a small bonus from the BofA breadth rule, capped at 100. Each component below shows its weight, its current reading, and what it takes to score.
| Component | Weight | Current reading | What scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| Percent above 20-day averageS&P 500 members | 15 pts | UNKNOWN | Points build as participation collapses to oversold extremes |
| McClellan Oscillator ($NAMO)Nasdaq | 10 pts | −3.06 | Points build on deeply negative oscillator extremes |
| Percent above 50-day averageS&P 500 members | 10 pts | UNKNOWN | Points build as participation collapses to oversold extremes |
| Summation Index ($NASI)Nasdaq | 5 pts | −790.26 | Points build at washed-out summation extremes |
| Component | Weight | Current reading | What scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity put/call ratio | 15 pts | 1.06 Thu · 1.01 Fri | Points build as put buying reaches panic levels |
| Fear & Greed Index | 10 pts | 18 | Points build in extreme fear (low readings) |
| AAII sentiment | 10 pts | UNKNOWN | Points build at bearish survey extremes |
| Component | Weight | Current reading | What scores |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX complex | 10 pts | VIX 19.45 | Points build as volatility spikes to panic levels |
| 90% down day / TRIN | 10 pts | TRIN 1.40 at Thursday’s close · zero 90% volume days in the current sequence | A 90% down-volume day, or TRIN at 2.0 or above — the capitulation zone |
| New 52-week lows | 5 pts | UNKNOWN — Oct 23 counts unverified | Points build as new lows expand to washout levels |
BofA breadth-rule bonus: +5 when net oversold reaches 88% or more, +2 at 70–87% — with the total score capped at 100. The BofA composite itself is context only; it is not scored.
Arming rule: the signal only arms when the S&P 500 is at least 8% below its high. It is 2.8% below — so today’s 7/100 is not armed, whatever the components say. Buy zones: 70+ is a contrarian scale-in; 85+ is a historic washout.
Coverage: 6 of the 10 scored components carry verified readings; 4 are marked UNKNOWN. The standing rule: any component that cannot be filled is marked UNKNOWN with coverage noted — never silently scored as zero. The score measures panic, not damage.
One line decides the big question. While the S&P 500 holds above its 10-month moving average, the market is in a structural bull — stay invested. The index is above that line today.
A month-end close below the 10-month average flips the playbook to maximum defense — portfolios de-risk as far as they go. No debate, no discretion: the line is the line.
Sectors · Eleven desks
Every desk closes its report with a Strength Score from 0 to 100 — 0–20 broken, 21–40 weak, 41–60 neutral, 61–80 strong, 81–100 exceptional. Five desks debuted through their Timeless 10 episodes; their first scores arrive with the weekly cycle. Tap any desk for its report, score drivers and Timeless 10.
Two kinds of momentum appear on every card below, and they are not the same thing. Score change is the move in a desk’s own Strength Score versus one and three months ago. The board began October 23, 2026, so those columns honestly read “Not yet available” until history exists — the first 1-month change arrives with the November 20 board, and the first 3-month change in late January 2027. Market price momentum is different: it is each sector ETF’s 1-month price change as of the October 23, 2026 close — the market’s move, not the desk’s score.
Style Factors · Saul Rosenberg, Style Factor Strategist
Saul does not pick stocks. He reads price stripped of single-stock noise: which style factors are actually leading and which are actually lagging, tracked through the ETFs that hold them. Every row below leads with the factor name in plain English — value, growth, momentum, quality — and then the ETF that tracks it, so no one needs to decode a ticker to read the tape.
On this desk the score means the clarity and durability of the leadership regime — how decisively the factor tape has picked a regime, and how much it can be trusted as a positioning signal. A high score does not mean risk-on; it means the tape is speaking clearly. Right now it is speaking clearly, and what it is saying is defend.
Capped below the 80s for three named reasons: momentum’s divergence is explainable but unresolved until the late-November MSCI rebalance; the defensive move is fast and now crowded into the October 28 FOMC and November 3 midterms; and the rotation, though decisive, is young.
Fish here: Dividend (SCHD +6.0%), Low volatility (USMV +4.4%), Value (IVE +2.7%) and Large-cap equal weight (RSP +2.5%) — the only factor trackers up over the month, in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.0%.
Do not fish here, for now: High beta (SPHB −10.4%), Speculative growth (ARKK −8.7%), Momentum — US (SPMO −8.7%), Emerging markets (EEM −8.4%), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ −5.0%), Growth (IVW −4.0%) and Mega-cap (XLG −2.5%).
The full 1-month order, best to worst: Dividend SCHD +6.0%, Low volatility USMV +4.4%, Value IVE +2.7%, Equal weight RSP +2.5%, Mid-cap IJH −0.9%, S&P 500 SPY −1.0%, Multi-factor QLC −1.6%, Developed ex-U.S. (reference) FNDF −1.6%, Mega-cap OEF −1.7%, Quality — US SPHQ −1.9%, Developed ex-U.S. EFA −2.1%, Small-cap IWM −2.2%, Mega-cap XLG −2.5%, Growth IVW −4.0%, Nasdaq 100 QQQ −5.0%, Emerging markets (reference) GEM −8.2%, Emerging markets EEM −8.4%, Momentum — US SPMO −8.7%, Speculative ARKK −8.7%, High beta SPHB −10.4%.
One honest change from the first version of this tab: swapping QUAL for SPHQ changes the quality print. QUAL, the old quality tracker, was +0.3% over the month; SPHQ, the S&P 500 quality tracker now used, is −1.9%, and QLC is −1.6%. Quality did not lead in October on these trackers — it fell with the market, just far less than momentum and speculative growth. Over one year the picture is different: QLC +16.1%, SPHQ +12.6%.
| Style factor | ETF | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference — S&P 500, cap-weighted | SPY | −1.0% | +2.0% | +7.8% | +14.4% |
| Reference — Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | −5.0% | +2.5% | +8.4% | +15.9% |
| Size — Mega-cap, S&P 500 Top 50 | XLG | −2.5% | +2.6% | +4.2% | +7.9% |
| Size — Mega-cap, S&P 100 | OEF | −1.7% | +2.4% | +8.6% | +13.2% |
| Size — Large-cap, equal-weighted | RSP | +2.5% | +1.1% | +7.8% | +15.3% |
| Size — Mid-cap | IJH | −0.9% | −3.6% | +0.2% | +11.7% |
| Size — Small-cap | IWM | −2.2% | −5.1% | +0.6% | +13.0% |
| Style — Value | IVE | +2.7% | +3.2% | +8.7% | +15.9% |
| Style — Growth | IVW | −4.0% | +1.0% | +7.0% | +12.8% |
| Momentum — US | SPMO | −8.7% | −3.4% | +7.6% | +16.2% |
| Quality — US | SPHQ | −1.9% | −1.8% | +3.9% | +12.6% |
| Multi-factor — Quality + Value + Momentum | QLC | −1.6% | −0.2% | +6.8% | +16.1% |
| Speculative / low quality | ARKK | −8.7% | +15.1% | +7.2% | −6.8% |
| High beta | SPHB | −10.4% | −2.7% | +2.8% | +20.6% |
| Dividend | SCHD | +6.0% | +6.2% | +14.1% | +35.1% |
| Low volatility | USMV | +4.4% | +5.5% | +9.9% | +10.6% |
| International — Developed ex-U.S. | EFA | −2.1% | −2.8% | +3.0% | +11.9% |
| International — Emerging markets | EEM | −8.4% | −3.2% | −0.0% | +15.5% |
| International — Developed ex-U.S. (reference point) | FNDF | −1.6% | −0.6% | +6.0% | +26.4% |
| International — Emerging markets (reference point) | GEM | −8.2% | −3.0% | +0.5% | +16.3% |
Returns are total returns (dividends reinvested), computed from adjusted closes: 1 month is September 23 – October 23, 2026; 3 months is July 31 – October 23, 2026, matching Saul’s original 3-month convention; 6 months is April 23 – October 23, 2026; 12 months is October 23, 2025 – October 23, 2026. The original Saul table (PortfoliosLab) is reproduced for the unchanged trackers; the new trackers were computed on the same adjusted-close basis and cross-check within 0.1 points of PortfoliosLab where that source publishes them (SPHQ 1Y +12.6%, OEF 1Y +13.2%). One-year figures can mislead where leadership has already turned: SPHB is +20.6% over a year but the worst tracker over the month, and EEM is +15.5% over a year but has rolled over since the first half. Read the 1-month column for where the tape is now.
The 100 S&P 500 stocks with the strongest volatility-adjusted momentum, ranked on 6- and 12-month price rises. Replacing MTUM, the broader MSCI momentum tracker, with a pure S&P 500 frame. The story is unchanged: SPMO is down 8.7% in a month, and its book is still the old regime’s winners — Apple, Micron, AMD, Johnson & Johnson, Alphabet.
The 100 S&P 500 stocks scoring highest on quality — return on equity, debt to book value, and accruals — weighted by quality score times market cap. Replacing QUAL, the broader quality tracker. Top holdings include Mastercard, Visa, Apple, Costco and Netflix.
Northern Trust’s three-factor fund: strong balance sheets and stable earnings (quality), attractive valuations (value), and positive trends to avoid value traps (momentum), with sector weights kept neutral so the result comes from stock selection, not sector bets.
XLG is the 50 largest S&P 500 stocks — the purest mega-cap cut. OEF is the S&P 100 — 100 large, established U.S. companies. Both are read against SPY (the whole S&P 500, cap-weighted) and QQQ (the Nasdaq 100, growth-heavy). In October, mega-cap lagged: XLG −2.5%, OEF −1.7%, QQQ −5.0%, while equal weight (RSP) gained +2.5% — broadening inside the index, not a mega-cap-led market.
For international, the tab uses two separate trackers, not one all-ex-U.S. fund: EFA for developed markets ex-U.S. (MSCI EAFE) and EEM for emerging markets (MSCI EM), plus two reference points — FNDF for developed and GEM for emerging. That split matters here, because their stories differ — developed ex-U.S. is below its 200-day and lagging on EFA, while EM led the first half and has since rolled over hard (−8.4% in the month on EEM, −8.2% on GEM). A single all-ex-U.S. fund (for example VXUS or ACWX) would blend those two stories into one number and hide the canary. Note what the reference points add: FNDF, Schwab’s fundamental-weighted developed ex-U.S. fund (RAFI, weighted on fundamentals, not market cap), is −1.6% over the month and +26.4% over one year — far ahead of EFA’s +11.9% over the year — so developed ex-U.S. is not uniformly lagging once you weight by fundamentals. GEM, Goldman’s multi-factor EM fund (value, momentum, quality and low volatility equally weighted), tracks EEM closely on every window, confirming the EM rollover is not a single-index artifact.
Value (IVE) leads growth (IVW) on all four horizons, but the bid is for dividends and cash flow, not cyclicals — SCHD, the purest dividend tracker, is +35.1% over one year, while high beta (SPHB) is the worst tracker over the month at −10.4% despite +20.6% over the year. That 1-year number is stale; the month is the signal.
The factors have already moved to the slowing-quad playbook — dividends, low volatility, value, big balance sheets held equal-weighted — and they moved before the data did. This is rotation, not liquidation: participation is broadening into defensives. Price is leading. Follow price.
Source: Saul’s Factor Map, October 23, 2026, updated with the SPMO / SPHQ / QLC / XLG / OEF / QQQ trackers above. What would change the score: momentum’s rebalance rotating into defensives pushes it toward 80; a post-midterm, post-FOMC tape that re-bids small caps, high beta and growth above their 200-day averages for more than a few sessions would cut it toward the 50s. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.
Selection · How we pick · October 23, 2026 snapshot
A funnel, not a dashboard. Each question is answered by the site’s own data, and each answer filters the next step — macro, then technicals, then style, then where to fish, then which ponds, then which stocks and ETFs first.
This is the October 23, 2026 edition. It is a snapshot at the Friday close, like the rest of the site, and it refreshes with the weekly board — it is not a live feed. Where a number below comes from a different source than the tab it is taken from, the source is stated. Where the funnel returns nothing, it says so; an empty answer is a finding, not a gap to fill with a guess.
Macro: Yellow. Technicals: Yellow (mixed). Style momentum: Red / defensive. The long-term technical rule still says stay invested — the S&P 500 is above its 10-month average — but nothing in this funnel says chase risk today. The tilt is quality, staples, health care, utilities, energy and dividends over high beta, momentum, small cap and emerging markets.
Rule used here: Quad 1–2 is green, Quad 3 is yellow, Quad 4 is red, combined with the macro-risk checklist. There is no single published “macro risk-taking score” on the site — this is a judgment composite, and it is labelled as one (see “What is missing” below).
Quad: Quad 2 tipping into Quad 3, with Quad 4 dominant across 2027. Checklist: Fed hawkish — about 91% priced for a hold at the Oct 27–28 meeting with a December hike widely expected; 10-year at ~5.00%; high-yield spreads 340bp (Amber); geopolitics Elevated with Brent at $116.72; core PCE 3.0% year over year. Against that: Recession Watch is all-clear and business and credit cycles are still Expansion. That combination is yellow, not red — slowing with re-accelerating inflation, not a recession call.
Long-term: green — S&P 500 close 7,623.68 is 5.4% above its 10-month average of 7,230.78 (month-end closes Dec 2025–Sep 2026) and above its rising 200-day near 7,288. Intermediate-term: neutral — range-bound 7,500–7,800 since August. Short-term: down — below the 50-day, with support at the Oct 16 low of 7,631.77 and the rising 100-day near 7,604. The 10-month rule says stay invested; the short-term tape says do not add risk aggressively. Month-end tripwire: a close below about 7,274 on Oct 30 would flip the long-term rule to maximum defense.
Green test, as specified: high beta (SPHB) outperforming low volatility (USMV), and discretionary (XLY) beating staples (XLP). Both fail at 1 month: SPHB −10.4% vs USMV +4.4%, and XLY +2.52% vs XLP +8.03% on the site’s 1-month sector-ETF set. Dividend (SCHD +6.0%) and value (IVE +2.7% vs growth IVW −4.0%) confirm it. This step is what stops the funnel from chasing high beta even when a 3-year Sharpe table would look tempting — see Q7.
1 month is the momentum window; 3 months is the confirmation. Where the two disagree, both are shown.
| Pair | 1 month | 3 months | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Large (XLG) vs Small (IWM) | −2.5% vs −2.2% | +2.6% vs −5.1% | Large — 1 month is a tie, 3 months is decisive |
| U.S. (SPY) vs Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | −1.0% vs −2.1% | +2.0% vs −2.8% | U.S. |
| U.S. (SPY) vs Emerging (VWO) | −1.0% vs −5.5% | +2.0% vs −3.1% | U.S. — VWO computed from Yahoo adjusted closes; the site’s EEM proxy reads −8.4% at 1 month, same verdict, different magnitude (FTSE vs MSCI index composition) |
| Value (IWD) vs Growth (IWF) | +2.4% vs −4.6% | +2.6% vs +1.2% | Value — computed from Yahoo adjusted closes; the site’s IVE vs IVW proxies read +2.7% vs −4.0% at 1 month, same verdict |
| Equal weight (RSP) vs Cap weight (SPY) | +2.5% vs −1.0% | +1.1% vs +2.0% | Equal weight on momentum, cap weight on 3 months — tilt equal weight, do not overcommit |
Q4 answer today: U.S., value, large, with an equal-weight tilt.
| Pond | 1-month ETF | Timeless 10 breadth score | Why it is here |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Energy (XLE) | +10.75% | 95.0 | Best 1-month sector and near-perfect Timeless breadth — the Quad 3 trade to harvest, not marry |
| 2. Utilities (XLU) | +8.13% | 55.0 | Defensive plus AI power demand; breadth improved from 0.0 in September |
| 3. Staples (XLP) | +8.03% | 100.0 | Perfect Timeless breadth — 10 of 10 green — and the defensive leg of Q3 |
Energy — green: XOM, CVX, EOG, LNG, SU, CNQ, SHEL, TTE, EQNR (9 of 10; WMB is yellow). Utilities — green: DUK, SO, AEP, IBDRY (NEE, SRE and NGG are yellow). Staples — green: COST, WMT, PG, CL, KO, MNST, PM, CART, OR, NESN (10 of 10).
Analyst favs in these ponds: none in the latest public Baird actions. The Baird Outperform actions found in October 2026 are concentrated in technology, fintech, communication services and health care — QCOM, SHOP, KVYO, VRT, ZS, GDDY, FICO, Block, GOOGL, ISRG, TMO — which is exactly the area Q3 says is not leading right now. Those names are therefore a watchlist, not fish-first, today. An empty Baird leg in the top ponds is a finding of this workflow, not a reason to invent a rating. The Baird list itself is curated manually from public actions (see “What is missing”) and is refreshed when new actions publish.
Overweight: USMV, SCHD / VIG, IWD, RSP, QLC, plus XLE, XLU and XLP for the sector ponds. Underweight / avoid now: SPHB, SPMO, ARKK-type high beta and momentum, IWM small cap, and EEM / VWO emerging markets. This is the opposite of what a 3-year Sharpe table alone would suggest for momentum — that conflict is intentional, and it is resolved in favour of the 1-month funnel (Q3–Q5), not the 3-year table.
Best in breed below is ranked by 3-year Sharpe ratio within each category. Sharpe, Sortino and alpha are computed from 3 years of daily Yahoo adjusted closes to Oct 23, 2026, risk-free rate 3.9% a year, alpha from a regression against SPY. SPY’s own alpha is 0.0% by construction — that is the check that the calculation is wired correctly. Backward-looking risk-adjusted leaders are not a buy list: a category marked “Avoid now” stays avoided even if its 3-year leader looks good. SPMO is the example — Sharpe 1.22 and alpha +5.26% over 3 years, but −8.7% over the last month.
| Category | Best in breed (3Y Sharpe) | Sharpe | Sortino | Alpha vs SPY (ann.) | Beta | Funnel fit today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low volatility | USMV | 0.95 | 1.35 | +1.76% | 0.47 | Wanted |
| Dividend | VIG | 1.09 | 1.60 | +1.06% | 0.72 | Wanted — SCHD has the higher alpha (+5.00%) on a slightly lower Sharpe (1.05) |
| Value | IWD | 1.28 | 1.87 | +4.27% | 0.72 | Wanted |
| Growth | IVW | 1.02 | 1.47 | −1.05% | 1.23 | Watch — growth is losing Q4 |
| Equal weight | RSP | 0.94 | 1.39 | −0.21% | 0.78 | Wanted (tilt, not overcommit — see Q4) |
| U.S. large / Mega-cap | OEF | 1.16 | 1.69 | +0.89% | 1.03 | Wanted (core) |
| Developed ex-U.S. | FNDF | 1.21 | 1.76 | +6.14% | 0.72 | Underweight — best in breed, wrong geography today |
| Emerging markets | GEM | 0.81 | 1.16 | +1.10% | 0.86 | Avoid now |
| Small cap | IWM | 0.67 | 0.99 | −4.91% | 1.12 | Avoid now |
| Mid cap | IJH | 0.64 | 0.94 | −5.46% | 0.99 | Watch |
| U.S. momentum | SPMO | 1.22 | 1.77 | +5.26% | 1.26 | Avoid now — 3-year leader, 1-month loser (−8.7%) |
| U.S. quality | QUAL | 1.03 | 1.51 | −0.81% | 0.91 | Watch |
| Multi-factor | QLC | 1.26 | 1.84 | +2.25% | 0.97 | Wanted |
| High beta | SPHB | 0.79 | 1.12 | −5.47% | 1.56 | Avoid now |
| Sector — Energy | XLE | 0.62 | 0.84 | +5.87% | 0.45 | Wanted (pond 1) |
| Sector — Utilities | XLU | 0.74 | 1.05 | +6.23% | 0.33 | Wanted (pond 2) |
| Sector — Staples | XLP | 0.60 | 0.87 | +4.65% | 0.19 | Wanted (pond 3) |
| Sector — Technology | XLK | 0.94 | 1.34 | −1.53% | 1.48 | Watch — sector breadth is cooling |
| Sector — Discretionary | XLY | 0.50 | 0.72 | −9.42% | 1.16 | Watch |
| Sector — Financials | XLF | 1.00 | 1.42 | +3.14% | 0.76 | Watch — breadth improved, momentum middling |
| Sector — Communication | XLC | 0.74 | 1.05 | −1.91% | 0.86 | Avoid now |
| Sector — Industrials | XLI | 0.88 | 1.29 | −0.57% | 0.89 | Avoid now |
| Sector — Materials | XLB | 0.48 | 0.70 | −4.82% | 0.77 | Watch |
| Sector — Real Estate | XLRE | 0.50 | 0.71 | −0.49% | 0.52 | Watch |
| Sector — Health Care | XLV | 0.60 | 0.87 | +1.59% | 0.44 | Wanted — breadth 85, momentum +5.54% at 1 month |
1. No single macro risk-taking score exists on the site. Q1 is a quad-plus-checklist judgment, not a published number. If you want a hard score, it needs a defined formula (for example, quad color plus spreads, breadth and credit, each weighted) — otherwise two people will score the same week differently.
2. The analyst-fav leg is empty in the top ponds. That may be a real gap in coverage, or it may mean the right analyst list for this step is not Baird alone — the team’s own desks, or another firm’s Outperform list, would fill it. The workflow surfaces that gap instead of hiding it.
3. VWO, IWD and IWF were not on the site before today. Their pair numbers here are Yahoo adjusted closes; the site’s other pair numbers are its published style table. The verdicts agree, the magnitudes differ slightly by source — that source difference should be reconciled at the next weekly refresh, ideally by putting all pairs on one source.
4. 3-year risk-adjusted leaders and 1-month momentum can point opposite ways. SPMO and FNDF are the proof. The tab resolves that in favour of the funnel, but that resolution is a rule you should confirm or change — it is not automatic.
5. Everything here is Oct 23. The funnel needs its weekly refresh cadence, and the Baird list needs a refresh trigger when new actions publish, or Q6 will go stale while the rest of the tab moves.
Portfolios · The Timeless program
Each sector desk built a Timeless 10 — the ten stocks in its sector it would most comfortably own for the next twelve months. The CIO and Paul, head of portfolio management, then picked the 25 best of the 110. Every portfolio is equal-weighted, entered at the Friday, October 23, 2026 close, and tracked in the open.
Please read: Timeless portfolios are hypothetical model portfolios tracked live from October 23, 2026. Returns are equal-weighted and price-only (dividends excluded; no fees, taxes, or slippage). They do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each sector head picks the 10 stocks in their sector they would most comfortably own for the next 12 months, judged through six lenses: leadership in its market, a durable business model, clear quality, growth opportunities, momentum characteristics as a stock, and fit for the macro environment. Each desk’s episode states the style factors it anchors to and the case for each name.
The universe behind the picks is the 300-brand universe plus US and foreign sector-ETF holdings, so the desks do not over-index to US stocks. Every name is ranked both overall and within its sector — and the within-sector rank is the decision signal: a name can look average overall and still be the best in its sector.
Technicals sit alongside fundamentals, because price leads: the desks weigh what the market is hinting at and the breadth inside their sector, not just the operating numbers. And the screens bite — Talen was left out of the Utilities 10 on quality and leverage grounds, not carried on a story.
The Timeless 25 is the CIO and Paul’s best of the best, drawn from the eleven 10s: all-weather durable compounders combining sector analysis, macro, fundamentals, and technicals. Non-US names are held between 10% and 35%, positioned inside that band by Saul’s US versus non-US and emerging-markets momentum read — diversification preferred, never forced against what the market rewards.
Equal-weighted, entries locked at the October 23 close, held 90 days, and re-run at each quarterly review starting January 22, 2027 — with quarters chain-linked into one record even as names change.
As of October 23, 2026 (inception): every since-inception return on this page reads 0.00%. Inception was that day’s close and markets were closed the following Saturday, so current prices still equal entry prices; the first live reading comes with the next close.
Green = proper bull trend: price above both the 10-month moving average and the 50-day moving average. Yellow = above exactly one of the two — your specified case is above the 10-month but below the 50-day; the mirror case (above the 50-day but below the 10-month) is also yellow, because it is a partial trend, not a proper bull trend and not a full downtrend. Red = below both. ○ UNKNOWN = no verified price (Universal Music Group only).
As of the October 23, 2026 close (entry). The 10-month average is the mean of the ten month-end closes from December 2025 through September 2026, following Trent’s S&P 500 method; the 50-day average is the mean of the last 50 trading-day closes to October 23. Both are computed on adjusted closes, so an ex-dividend drop does not break a trend by itself. Hover or tap a Trend cell to see its close and both averages. The column is a snapshot at entry and refreshes with the weekly board — it is not a live intraday feed. At entry: Timeless 25 had 12 green, 6 yellow, 7 red; across all 110 Timeless 10 names, 54 green, 25 yellow, 30 red, 1 UNKNOWN. Staples were 10 of 10 green and Energy 9 of 10 green; Industrials were 8 of 10 red.
Breadth is the Trend column, averaged across the portfolio: green = 100, yellow = 50, red = 0. At the October 23 close, 54 green (49.5%), 25 yellow (22.9%), 30 red (27.5%) across 109 priced names. Thirty days earlier the same names scored 46.3 — 33 green, 35 yellow, 41 red. A move of 5 points or more counts as improving or getting worse; less than that is neutral.
The Timeless 25 on its own scores 60.0, also improving (+14.0): 12 green, 6 yellow, 7 red now, versus 8 green, 7 yellow, 10 red on September 23.
Read the level and the direction together. The level alone, 61, is healthy-mixed — nowhere near extreme negative breadth. The direction, +14.7 in 30 days, is improving. But the improvement is a rotation, not broad strength (see the sector table): defensives flipped green while technology and industrials broke down. Breadth improving at the portfolio level does not mean every sector is healthy.
| Sector / portfolio | Oct 23 score | Sep 23 score | Change | Direction | Oct green | Oct yellow | Oct red |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Timeless names (110 unique) | 61.0 | 46.3 | +14.7 | Improving | 54 | 25 | 30 |
| Timeless 25 | 60.0 | 46.0 | +14.0 | Improving | 12 | 6 | 7 |
| Consumer Staples — Stan | 100.0 | 50.0 | +50.0 | Improving | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Utilities — Uma | 55.0 | 0.0 | +55.0 | Improving | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Financials — Frank | 85.0 | 45.0 | +40.0 | Improving | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Consumer Discretionary — Dana | 45.0 | 25.0 | +20.0 | Improving | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Real Estate — Rosa | 45.0 | 25.0 | +20.0 | Improving | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Communication Services — Carl | 27.8 | 16.7 | +11.1 | Improving | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Energy — Ethan | 95.0 | 85.0 | +10.0 | Improving | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Health Care — Hannah | 85.0 | 75.0 | +10.0 | Improving | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Materials — Matt | 55.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | Neutral | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Technology — Tom | 60.0 | 85.0 | −25.0 | Getting worse | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Industrials — Ivan | 15.0 | 45.0 | −30.0 | Getting worse | 1 | 1 | 8 |
Communication Services is scored on 9 priced names; Universal Music Group is UNKNOWN at both dates and excluded from every score, so it never moves a score. The Timeless 25 is a subset of the 110, not an addition to it — counting both would double-count 25 names.
The improvement is defensive rotation. Staples went from 50.0 to a perfect 100.0 (10 of 10 green). Utilities went from 0.0 — all ten names red on September 23 — to 55.0. Financials went from 45.0 to 85.0. That is the slowing-quad playbook showing up in breadth, not a broad bull-market thrust.
The deterioration is concentrated, and it matters. Technology fell from 85.0 to 60.0 as NVDA, ASML, META and TSM slipped from green to yellow and Lam Research fell to red. Industrials fell from 45.0 to 15.0 — only Lockheed Martin is green; GE Vernova, Eaton, Quanta, Comfort Systems, RTX and Safran all flipped to red. If you only read the overall score, you would miss the two sectors breaking down underneath it.
On extreme negative breadth, use it as a trigger, not a verdict. If this score ever fell below about 20 — almost every name red — history says you are in one of three places: a recession, a major black-swan shock like the pandemic, or a raging buying opportunity at capitulation. Breadth alone cannot tell you which one. That distinction comes from the rest of the board: macro and quad regime, credit spreads, and Trent’s capitulation gauge (7 of 100 at October 23, not armed). Breadth tells you how bad it is; the macro tells you whether to buy it or hide from it.
| Ticker | Company | Country | Entry price | Current price | Since inception | Weight | Trend |
|---|
Non-US: 4 of 25 (16%) — TSM (Taiwan), ASML (Netherlands), AZN (United Kingdom), LIN (Ireland). The band is 10% minimum to 35% maximum non-US; style-factor momentum sets the position inside the band each quarter. The count sits near the floor today because the tape favors the US; if non-US momentum reasserts by January, it moves up. We fish where the fish are biting.
Q1 returns are measured at the January 22 review and the chain-linked record starts there. Nothing on this page is backfilled or hypothetical — the clock started October 23, 2026.
Each Timeless 10 sits inside a single sector, so its bar shows GICS sub-industry weights instead of a sector mix: every holding is 10% of its list, so each sub-industry segment is 10% times the number of holdings in it, and the legend under each bar names the holdings behind every segment. Sub-industries come from the Dynamic Brand Screener 2026 for names in the 300-brand universe — shown in their full standard GICS form where the screener file truncates the label — and from the standard GICS classification for names outside the 300. A holding whose sub-industry could not be verified is shown as UNKNOWN, never guessed.
300 Index · Track the universe
A well-researched 300-stock list of leading companies tied to the global consumption theme across consumer spending, business spending, and government spending.
Every name in the universe, with its stock price and performance as of the October 23, 2026 close. Returns are price-only — dividends excluded. SPY and ACWI are pinned at the top as reference points, on the same columns. Tap any column heading to sort — rank the 300 by any performance window, or by Trend — and use the sector filter to look at one sector at a time. The Trend column uses the same green / yellow / red rule as the Portfolios tab, as of the October 23 close.
Breadth is the Trend column, averaged across the universe: green = 100, yellow = 50, red = 0. At the October 23 close, 113 green (38.2%), 81 yellow (27.4%), 102 red (34.5%) across 296 priced names. Thirty days earlier the same universe scored 36.9 — 68 green, 82 yellow, 145 red. A move of 5 points or more counts as improving or getting worse; less than that is neutral.
The broader universe is weaker than the Timeless portfolios — and that is the point. The Timeless 110 scored 61.0 on the same date. The Timeless names are picked leaders, so they trend better by construction; the 300 includes the laggards too, which is why this is the cleaner read on overall market breadth. Both readings improved by about 15 points in 30 days, and both improved for the same reason: defensive rotation, not a broad bull thrust.
| Sector | Oct 23 score | Sep 23 score | Change | Direction | Oct green | Oct yellow | Oct red | Priced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 300 names | 51.9 | 36.9 | +14.9 | Improving | 113 | 81 | 102 | 296 |
| Materials | 100.0 | 25.0 | +75.0 | Improving | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Energy | 90.0 | 70.0 | +20.0 | Improving | 8 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| Consumer Staples | 74.2 | 30.6 | +43.6 | Improving | 21 | 4 | 6 | 31 |
| Health Care | 73.1 | 50.0 | +23.1 | Improving | 14 | 10 | 2 | 26 |
| Real Estate | 64.3 | 14.3 | +50.0 | Improving | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Information Technology | 60.8 | 79.7 | −18.9 | Getting worse | 14 | 17 | 6 | 37 |
| Financials | 52.7 | 37.8 | +14.9 | Improving | 16 | 7 | 14 | 37 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 43.4 | 19.9 | +23.5 | Improving | 22 | 28 | 33 | 83 |
| Utilities | 40.0 | 0.0 | +40.0 | Improving | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Communication Services | 28.6 | 33.3 | −4.7 | Neutral | 4 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
| Industrials | 27.0 | 31.1 | −4.1 | Neutral | 7 | 6 | 24 | 37 |
Small-sample warning: Materials is 2 names in this tab’s mapping (Corteva is in the workbook but not the universe file), Real Estate 7, Utilities 5 — one name flipping moves those scores a lot. Read them as direction, not precision. UNKNOWN at October 23: CBRS, SPCX, SKHY, JMKE — too little price history for a 10-month average, so they are excluded from every score, never scored as zero. Medline was also UNKNOWN on September 23 and is red at October 23.
The improvement is defensive, again — but broader this time. Staples jumped from 30.6 to 74.2, Health Care from 50.0 to 73.1, Discretionary from 19.9 to 43.4, Real Estate from 14.3 to 64.3, Utilities from 0.0 to 40.0. Energy stayed the strongest broad sector at 90.0.
Technology is the one broad sector getting worse, and it is the one that was strongest. Technology fell from 79.7 to 60.8 — the highest September score in the universe, now just above the middle. Communication Services and Industrials are flat-to-down on this broad read (both within the 5-point neutral band), which is a softer picture than the Timeless industrials, where the picked power and defense names broke down hard. The 300 says: tech cooling, industrials weak but not collapsing, defensives taking the lead.
On extreme negative breadth, the same trigger rule as the Portfolios tab applies. If this 300 score ever fell below about 20, you would be in recession, major black-swan, or capitulation-buying-opportunity territory — and breadth alone could not tell you which. That distinction comes from macro, credit, and Trent’s capitulation gauge, not from this table. At 51.9 and improving, we are nowhere near that zone.
| Ticker | Name | Sector | Price | 1 Week | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 12 Months | Trend |
|---|
Returns are price-only (dividends excluded), so high-yield names will look weaker here than on a total-return basis.
Sectors follow the 300 universe file’s mapping, which differs slightly from the screener workbook’s sector counts in a few cases — for example, Materials shows 2 names here versus 3 in the workbook, because Corteva is in the workbook but not in the universe file.
A handful of recent listings have no price history for the longer windows; those cells read UNKNOWN — the data does not exist yet, and is never shown as 0.00%.
Podcasts · The Heat Map show
Every episode leads with its subject, so you can scan and pick your topic. The show is live on Spotify, and you can subscribe in any podcast app with the RSS feed.
Weekly Briefs · The CIO summary
After Friday’s close, every desk’s observations flow up to the CIO and are consolidated into one weekly summary. This is the archive, newest first.
What happened during the week across stocks, bonds, volatility, rates and the big movers in both directions. Each edition shows the week’s moves and, in a separate labeled strip, that Friday’s single-day moves, so the two readings never blur together. New editions join this archive alongside the weekly board.
The Team · Hierarchy & coverage
The Heat Map is produced by a named team with a clear chain of command — a human CIO at the top, a team leader running the desks day to day, and a specialist accountable for every sector and every market lens the board tracks.
The CIO sets the verdict, owns the portfolios and the track record, and has the final say on everything the team publishes.
Runs the team day to day: coordinates the desks and specialists, consolidates their work into the weekly CIO summary, and keeps the scoreboard, portfolios and episodes on schedule.
The quad framework: where the economy is, where it is headed, and what wins and loses in each regime.
Owns every fixed-income call: which bond asset classes to own, and through which ETFs. The bond market is the smart market — Bill’s read factors into every CIO synthesis.
Trend, breadth and internals across long, intermediate and short timeframes — price leads fundamentals.
What the market is rewarding: size, growth versus value, momentum, quality, US versus non-US.
Commodities and hard assets — gold, energy and the physical side of the market.
The short-term lens: options gamma positioning, fast-money favorites and trading setups.
What consumers and trading communities are hot and cold on — buzz as a leading indicator.
Turns the macro view, the technicals and the desks’ work into allocations — and co-builds the Timeless 25 with the CIO.
Builds the messaging: how the team’s markets work and portfolios reach clients and investors, clearly and on time.
Every major market lens is covered by a named specialist: all eleven GICS sectors, plus macro, technicals, style factors, real assets, the trading tape, social buzz, fixed income and asset allocation. Nothing on the scoreboard is nobody’s job — every reading on this site has a name, a desk and a chain of command behind it.
Disclosures
What The Heat Map is, what it is not, and the basis on which everything here — scores, portfolios and track record included — should be read.
The Heat Map is published for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation or an offer to buy, sell, or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The content is general in nature: it is not tailored to any individual reader’s financial situation, objectives, or needs, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Before making any investment decision, do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor who knows your situation.
The Heat Map is produced by an AI analyst team working under human direction. The views expressed are the team’s opinions as of the date shown on each page, report, or episode, and they are subject to change without notice as market conditions and the underlying data change. Information is drawn from sources the team believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The team has no obligation to update any score, report, or opinion after its publication date, except as part of its regular weekly and quarterly cycles.
The Timeless 10 lists and the Timeless 25 are hypothetical model portfolios. They are not actual trading accounts, and they do not represent the results of any client or investor. They are tracked live from October 23, 2026 — nothing is backtested, and no performance is shown for any period before that date.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Forward-looking statements — including views on the direction of markets, economic regimes, interest rates, and individual companies — are opinions only; they are not guarantees, predictions of fact, or promises of future performance, and actual outcomes may differ materially.
The Heat Map is an independent research publication. It is not a fund, and nothing on this site is an offer for any fund or ETF or constitutes fund marketing material. References to companies and securities are research opinions of the analyst team only.
You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Verify any figure that matters to you against primary sources, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor before acting. By using this site you acknowledge that The Heat Map is an educational publication and not a substitute for professional advice tailored to you.
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