The Heat Map
Brands, macro, trading ideas, long-term stock ideas and research — from one expert team, always on.
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Macro, sectors, bonds, technicals and portfolios — distilled into decisions and updated daily. And we’re just getting started: new portfolios and models are added all the time.

WATCH: WHAT THE HEAT MAP PROVIDES · 1:49 Skip to today’s verdict ↓

CIO Verdict for the week ending October 30, 2026

Stay invested, defensibly tilted.

Risk panel Market readings as of the October 30, 2026 close · refreshed every close

The regime: leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation

  • Growth is slowing while inflation re-accelerates — that is Stagflation — and Deflation is dominant across 2027
  • In the overlap of the two slowing regimes, the assets that tend to win are gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis
  • Energy and power are a Stagflation trade to harvest, not marry
  • Long bonds are the 2027 prize once the hiking cycle credibly ends
  • We are underweight financials, discretionary ex-quality, high yield, leveraged loans and small caps
Tactical Risk Score
47.4%
Recession Watch
LOW 7 clear · 1 on watch — payrolls
Business Cycle
Expansion
Credit Cycle
Expansion
10-Year Treasury
4.93%
VIX
19.42
S&P 500
7,580.07

Where do you want to go?

The scoreboard Strength Scores, highest to lowest · Desk scores as of the Friday, October 30, 2026 close · refreshed daily after the close · prices update every close · tap a sector to open its desk

81–100 Exceptional 61–80 Strong 41–60 Neutral 21–40 Weak 0–20 Broken
How these scores and comments are calculated
  • Two scores, never one: every box shows Fundamentals and Technicals side by side — the two are never added together or averaged into a single number
  • Fundamentals is a judgment: the desk head’s conviction score, 0 to 100, set from the drivers named on that desk’s page — a person’s call, not the output of a formula
  • Technicals is the tape: 50% long-term (the row’s proxy price vs its 10-month average) + 30% intermediate (the proxy’s 50-day average vs its 150-day) + 20% short-term (price vs its 25-day average), measured at the most recent close
  • Comments roll weekly, data rolls daily: prices and readings refresh every day at the close; the scores and comments are the desks’ weekly verdicts
  • What it looks like: Industrials reads Fundamentals 68 · Technicals 25 — the desk likes it, the tape does not. That gap is the point of the board: a watchlist, sized carefully, until the tape turns
  • Two tiles measure a basket, not one fund: Real Assets’ Technicals come from its four sleeve funds in equal weight; Digital Assets’ from Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana weighted by size — the math is the same 50 / 30 / 20 trend blend

Hear it — 85 seconds: how the scores work

Coverage The team never sleeps on a story — every wire, print and podcast, swept on a schedule

Earnings Radar

Daily
  • Every reporter across the 300-name brand universe, plus foreign sector-ETF holdings
  • Every figure verified against the primary release; sector QuickTake episodes carry the owning desk’s opinion

News Sweeps

3× daily
  • CNBC and Bloomberg headline wires, Reuters and the Asian wires — early, morning and midday
  • Asia’s overnight session covered before the US wakes up: SK Hynix’s record print was flagged pre-market on Oct 28

Bloomberg Podcasts

Every 2 hours
  • Swept every 2 hours for new episodes across the lineup (Surveillance, Odd Lots, Masters in Business, The Close, Trillions, Daybreak and more)
  • Transcripts are used where Bloomberg publishes them; otherwise the desk works from the episode's official summary. Anything material is filed to the owning desk the same day

Flows & Tape

Daily
  • Options-flow scan for concentrated premium and one-way footprints
  • Trading-desk flags when the tape moves first

Washout Watch

Daily
  • Capitulation score and breadth extremes — $NASI included — monitored against the team’s tripwire lines

Tripwires & Event Calendar

Always on
  • FOMC decisions, major prints and month-end trend verdicts on a standing calendar
  • Nothing on it arrives as a surprise

Weekly Cycle

Weekly
  • Every desk files its week; the CIO rolls it up into the State of the Markets and the weekly podcast

Daily · Market notes and the Daily X-Ray

Market Notes Three editions every trading day — the morning note, the midday report and the closing summary

Something to read when you wake up, at lunch, and on the drive home.

MORNING NOTEFriday, October 30, 2026 · As of 8:15 a.m. ET

Amazon failed the cap ex test by the widest margin yet — the build-out is now debt-funded, Asia sold the whole AI chain for it, and only energy is printing cash this morning.

  • Amazon, the third data point:
    • AWS grew +39% to $46.0B — operating income hit a record $28.1B
    • The quarter spent $77.3B on property and equipment against $42.4B of operating cash flow
    • Trailing free cash flow is now a −$42.4B outflow — plugged with ~$48B of new debt
    • The $220B spending guide held — shares −7% pre-market, Nasdaq futures ~−2%
    • The stack now grades 1 pass (Microsoft), 2 fails (Alphabet, Amazon)
    • Intel guided down hard on a PC slump and a fatal fab explosion — −25% pre-market
    • Asia followed: KOSPI −3.5% to −4% · Nikkei −2%
    • Kioxia warned memory price growth is slowing — the first crack in the pricing supercycle
  • Energy is the cash machine on the other side:
    • Exxon earned $4.23 and Chevron $5.28 — both beats
    • Exxon made more from refining than upstream for the first time in six years (+2% pre-market)
    • BP posted its best quarter in 18 years — $8.46B vs $7.33B expected
    • BP cut net debt to $13.9B — no buyback restart
    • Brent December ~$117.70 after a reported Hormuz tanker attack — just under the $120 line that changes the call
  • Into a month-end verdict day:
    • The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% but declared 2% inflation achieved — and doubled its ETF sales pace
    • December is now a live hike month for the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ at once
    • The 10-year rallied to ~4.91% — still between the 4.40% and 5.40% lines
    • Futures leave the S&P a large cushion over its ~7,231 10-month average — today's close, not the morning tape, decides the trend print
    • Overnight's other break: a $6.3B Binance theft — the largest crypto heist on record, attributed to North Korea
    • Bitcoin below $78,000, withdrawals suspended — proof of reserves on Nov 1 is the verification date
MIDDAY REPORTFriday, October 30, 2026 · As of 2:51 p.m. ET

The AI financing selloff deepened into midday but stayed a tech event, not a market break — the S&P 500 holds a wide cushion over its month-end line, and Germany just handed the ECB a cooler inflation print with an expiry date on it.

  • Tech rout, contained so far:
    • The Nasdaq Composite fell -2.61% by 12:43 p.m. ET to 25,501.64 — its lowest in nearly three months
    • The Nasdaq-100 fell about -3% · the S&P 500 about -1.5% intraday
    • Intel held about -28% on its guide cut
    • Amazon pared a -7% pre-market fall to roughly -2%
    • Staples and health care gained
    • The S&P 500 still sits well above the ~7,231 10-month average tonight's month-end close is judged against — the trend state reads on the close, not the midday tape
  • Germany cools, Europe does not:
    • German harmonised inflation printed +2.8% year over year vs +3.1% expected (Destatis, provisional)
    • Core down to +2.1% from +2.4% — helped by an October fuel tax cut that expires at year-end
    • Italy printed +5.6% and France +3.8% this morning
    • One soft German print does not close the ECB December hike debate — the Nov 4 euro-area flash is expected at +3.9%
  • Binance puts a number on the cover:
    • More than $6.34B of company funds is reserved against the ~$6.3B theft
    • About $5B of it is already held in the affected tokens
    • Withdrawals are now guided to resume within about 42 to 45 hours
    • The Nov 1 proof-of-reserves snapshot remains the verification date
    • Brent stayed under the $120 escalation line — the January contract at $113.51 on the morning print
CLOSING SUMMARYFriday, October 30, 2026 · As of the October 30 close

A leadership break, not a market break — Intel lost 28.6% and gold broke $4,000, but energy and defensives were bought, yields fell, and October closed above its 10-month line.

  • The day:
    • S&P 500 -1.82% to 7,580.07 · Nasdaq -2.86% · Nasdaq 100 -3.46% · Dow -1.09%
    • 6 of 11 sectors rose — Energy +1.91% and Staples +1.38% against Technology -4.24%
    • Intel -28.58% — its worst day since 1974 on a Q4 guide cut
    • SMH -6.98%
    • October still closed about 276 points above the 7,304.23 10-month average — the trend state stays green
  • Cash beat spending, again:
    • Exxon earned $4.23 vs $4.08 expected — refining ahead of upstream for the first time in six years
    • Chevron $5.28 vs $4.89
    • AbbVie beat and raised
    • December gold closed $3,893.30, -3.43% — through the $4,000 line
    • Bitcoin fell to about $76,816 after the $6.3B Binance theft — now fully reserved, proof of reserves due Nov 1
  • Rates and what to watch:
    • ECI printed +0.8% — in line
    • Yields fell: 2-year 4.56% · 10-year 4.94%
    • December hike odds eased to roughly 72-74%
    • VIX at 19.42 in contango — washout score at 0/100
    • The Bank of Japan held at 1.25% but declared 2% inflation achieved
    • Next week: JOLTS and AMD on Tuesday · the euro-area inflation flash Nov 4 · payrolls Friday

Daily X-Ray

Friday, October 30, 2026 close — updated each weekday from the daily capital markets brief

Biggest events

  1. Intel fell 28.58% — its worst day since 1974.
    • INTC closed $65.76 — a Q3 beat buried by Q4 guidance of $15–16B vs $17.05B expected
    • PC sales guided down 20%+
    • Chips followed: SMH −6.98% · Qualcomm −11.12% · AMD ~−11% · Nvidia −4.22%
    • Nasdaq −2.86% to 25,437.00 · S&P 500 −1.82% to 7,580.07 · Dow −1.09%
  2. Gold closed $3,893.30 — through the $4,000 line.
    • December gold closed $3,893.30, −3.43% — a one-year low in spot
    • Silver $49.03, −6.40%
    • Liquid metals were sold into the equity rout — no safe-haven bid
    • December hike odds still above 70%
  3. The month-end trend line held — both big indexes closed October above their 10-month averages.
    • S&P 500: close 7,580.07 · 10-month average 7,304.23 · +3.78% above the line
    • Nasdaq Composite: close 25,437.00 · 10-month average 24,984.21 · +1.81% above the line
    • No trend-break signal — no first close below the line, no Market in Transition
    • The Nasdaq still posted its worst month since March 2025 (−5.3%) — its cushion over the line is the thinner one
  4. Energy printed the cash.
    • Exxon adjusted EPS $4.23 vs $4.08 expected — refining earned more than upstream for the first time in at least six years
    • Chevron $5.28 vs $4.89
    • Energy was the best sector, +1.91% — and 6 of 11 sectors rose
  5. Bonds were bought, fear gauges stayed calm.
    • ECI +0.8% — exactly in line
    • Yields: 2-year 4.56% · 10-year 4.94% · 30-year 5.31%
    • VIX closed 19.42 in contango
    • Washout score 0/100

Biggest movers up

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM ~+2%) — refining beat, $4.23 vs $4.08
  • Chevron (CVX ~+2%) — $5.28 vs $4.89, record refinery runs
  • Consumer staples (XLP +1.38% sector) — defensive bid all day
  • Utilities (XLU +0.64% sector) — bought with duration
  • Health Care (XLV +0.43% sector) — AbbVie beat and raised its guide

Biggest movers down

  • Intel (INTC −28.58%) — Q4 guide cut, worst day since 1974
  • Qualcomm (QCOM −11.12%) — chip read-across
  • AMD (AMD ~−11%) — PC warning lands before its Nov 3 print
  • Semiconductors (SMH −6.98%) — the complex repriced in one session
  • Coinbase (COIN −10%+) — Bitcoin under $77,000 after the Binance theft

Key news and what’s next

  • Yields fell across the curve: 2-year 4.56% · 10-year 4.94% · 30-year 5.31%
  • December hike odds eased to roughly 72–74%
  • Oil bid on Hormuz: WTI $104.07, +2.03%; Brent closed $113.43 — $6.57 under the $120 line on a closing basis (the December contract printed $117.55 intraday); a tanker was struck near the Strait
  • Bank of Japan held at 1.25% but declared 2% inflation achieved — December is a live hike month for the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ at once
  • Bitcoin ~$76,816, −3% — Binance says the ~$6.3B theft is fully reserved; proof of reserves lands November 1
  • Ahead next week: JOLTS Tuesday, AMD earnings Tuesday, euro-area inflation flash November 4, payrolls Friday

Macro · Marco, Macro Strategist

Leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation — with Deflation dominant across 2027.

A regime is one of four macro environments — every period is sorted by whether growth and inflation are rising or falling.

Section 1The Call

Why Macro?

Marco, the desk’s macro strategist, on why this tab comes first: the two-question framework behind the regime call, the evidence stack it is built from, and how the call drives every portfolio decision on this site. Evergreen — the method, not the week.

Why Macro? — 2 minutes

Current Macro Read

This week’s read in Marco’s voice: the call, the evidence for it and against it, what is actually working, the outside map that disagrees on timing, and the triggers that would change the call. Restated every Friday after the close.

Current Macro Read — week ending October 30, 2026

The Regime map The four regimes at a glance — growth on the vertical axis, inflation on the horizontal

Goldilocks
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↓

The friendliest regime — favors stocks broadly, growth names and credit.

ReflationLeaving now
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑

Favors commodities, energy, cyclicals and other real assets.

DeflationDominant across 2027
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↓

Favors long bonds, gold and quality defensives; hard on cyclicals, commodities and credit.

StagflationTipping in now
Growth ↓ · Inflation ↑

Favors gold, commodities and defensive sectors; hard on credit.

The markers flag the team’s current read. What each regime rewards in practice is set out under Optimal Positioning, further down this tab.

The call in brief

  • Regime: leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation — growth slowing while inflation re-accelerates — with Deflation dominant across 2027.
  • Positioning: overweight the slowing-regime overlap — gold, utilities, staples, health care, the quality factor and munis; energy and power are a Stagflation trade to harvest, not marry.
  • The Fed held on October 28: 10–2, both dissents for a hike; December is the live meeting, at roughly 72–74% priced for a hike; the 10-year Treasury sits at 4.93% and high-yield spreads at 337bp (October 26).

Regime evidence board — the call, in numbers

Where the evidence stands: the inflation leg of the call is confirmed by the prints; the growth leg is not — it rests on payrolls and the forward map. That split, in dated numbers, is this board.

Growth axis — the desk’s verdict: Slowing, on forward evidence

GDP — Q3 2026, advance estimateBEA · released October 29, 2026+3.4%
Private domestic final purchasers — Q3 2026BEA · October 29, 2026 — the demand underneath GDP, still strong+4.9%
Jobless claims — week ended October 24, 2026Department of Labor · 4-week average 196,750 — near 57-year lows194K
Payrolls — 3-month average, Jul–Sep 2026Bureau of Labor Statistics · September alone +29K, after downward revisions — at stall speed+51K
Factory new orders (ISM) — September 2026Institute for Supply Management · above 50 means factories are still expanding55.3

Inflation axis — the desk’s verdict: Re-accelerating, confirmed by the prints

Core PCE — year-on-year, September 2026BEA · released October 29, 2026 · +0.3% in the month — the Fed’s gauge, moving away from its 2% target+3.1%
Headline PCE — year-on-year, September 2026BEA · released October 29, 2026+3.6%
Brent crudeFront-month close · October 30, 2026 · daily capital-markets brief — oil is the regime’s swing factor; its two trigger lines are scored below, quoted on closes — the December contract touched $117.55 intraday$113.43

The five triggers — live status

  • NOT MET — Brent below ~$100, sustained: Brent closed at $113.43 (October 30), well above the line — the inflation leg stands.
  • ARMED — Brent above ~$120: Brent closed at $113.43 (October 30) — $6.57 below the line on a closing basis; the December contract touched $117.55 intraday — a sustained break deepens the inflation shock and defense goes up a gear.
  • ARMED — December FOMC language: the meeting is December 8–9 and futures price a hike at ~72–74% (October 30); whether the hiking cycle is credibly over is the test.
  • ARMED — Two more soft payrolls: payrolls are already at stall speed (+51K on the 3-month average; September +29K) — two more soft prints confirm the growth slowdown and pull Deflation forward.
  • ARMED — Hyperscaler 2027 cap ex guidance: the desk’s named adjudicator is the January guidance round (set October 30) — the AI build-out’s trajectory decides the forward map’s second leg.

Regime history — the call’s dated record

Oct 23, 2026 — inaugural call: leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation, Deflation dominant across 2027; the five triggers set. · Oct 29 — split-thesis logged: inflation leg confirmed by the September PCE prints, growth leg resting on the forward map; call unchanged. · Oct 30 — three outside 2027 maps bracket the house call; the growth leg formally on notice; call unchanged. · Current — restated in the Friday cycle: leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation.

How to read this board: every reading carries its value, source and date, drawn from the same dated boards as the Macro dashboard below (state as of the October 30, 2026 close). The axis verdicts are Marco’s, restated in the weekly Friday cycle — the method behind them (who decides, what changes the call) is written out in his one-page regime methodology, on file with the team.

Five triggers that change the call

  • Brent below ~$100, sustained — the inflation leg of Stagflation weakens
  • Brent above ~$120 — the inflation shock deepens; defense goes up a gear
  • December FOMC language — whether the hiking cycle is credibly over
  • Two more soft payrolls — the growth slowdown is confirmed, Deflation arrives early
  • Hyperscaler 2027 cap ex guidance — the AI build-out’s trajectory, and the power trade with it

Optimal Positioning for the Regime

Scope:

Overweight — the slowing-regime overlap

  • Gold and real assets
  • Utilities, staples, health care — the defensive compounders
  • The quality factor and munis
  • Energy and power — a Stagflation trade to harvest, not marry
  • Long bonds — the 2027 prize, once the hiking cycle credibly ends

Underweight

  • Financials
  • Consumer discretionary, ex-quality names
  • High yield and leveraged loans
  • Small caps

What is actually working The regime baskets, checked against the tape — the playbook says what should win; this is what is winning

Stagflation — the regime tipping in now

7 of 10 favored are working, 0 mixed, 3 not — gold is the failure.

  • Not working: gold (GLD) −4.3% over 3 months and −12.9% versus its 10-month average; utilities (XLU) −1.4% over 3 months and −0.9% versus its 10-month average — surging lately (+9.5% in the last month) but the 3-month check still fails; munis (MUB) −0.7% over 3 months and −0.6% versus its 10-month average.
  • Working hardest: energy (XLE) +19.8%, commodities (DBC) +16.4%, health care (XLV) +14.4% over 3 months — ahead of the S&P 500 and above their 10-month averages.
  • Desk additions are pulling their weight: t-bills, low volatility — every desk add checks out as working.
FavoredProxySource1 mo3 movs 10-mo avgStatus
GoldGLDPlaybook−7.0%−4.3%−12.9%Not working
CommoditiesDBCPlaybook+2.6%+16.4%+14.9%Working
EnergyXLEPlaybook+11.7%+19.8%+19.3%Working
UtilitiesXLUPlaybook+9.5%−1.4%−0.9%Not working
StaplesXLPPlaybook+11.3%+6.1%+6.8%Working
Health careXLVPlaybook+11.2%+14.4%+16.1%Working
Quality factorQUALPlaybook−0.4%+0.6%+4.9%Working
MunisMUBPlaybook+2.8%−0.7%−0.6%Not working
T-billsSGOVDesk addition+0.3%+0.9%+1.4%Working
Low volatilityUSMVDesk addition+5.0%+5.1%+6.3%Working

Why the desk additions are in:

  • T-bills (SGOV) — the portfolio’s standing rule — while inflation is rising, the defensive corner is cash and T-bills; Bill scores SGOV 82, his highest fixed-income class
  • Low volatility (USMV) — Saul’s factor board — low volatility is what the tape is rewarding while high beta and momentum are punished

Deflation — dominant across 2027

5 of 9 favored are working, 1 mixed, 3 not — gold is the failure.

  • Not working: gold (GLD) −4.3% over 3 months and −12.9% versus its 10-month average; utilities (XLU) −1.4% over 3 months and −0.9% versus its 10-month average — surging lately (+9.5% in the last month) but the 3-month check still fails; munis (MUB) −0.7% over 3 months and −0.6% versus its 10-month average.
  • Working hardest: health care (XLV) +14.4%, staples (XLP) +6.1%, low volatility (USMV) +5.1% over 3 months — ahead of the S&P 500 and above their 10-month averages.
  • Mixed: long bonds (TLT) — ahead of the S&P 500 over 3 months (+0.4%) but still below its 10-month average (−1.6%); the prize has not confirmed.
FavoredProxySource1 mo3 movs 10-mo avgStatus
Long bondsTLTPlaybook+5.3%+0.4%−1.6%Mixed
GoldGLDPlaybook−7.0%−4.3%−12.9%Not working
Quality factorQUALPlaybook−0.4%+0.6%+4.9%Working
UtilitiesXLUPlaybook+9.5%−1.4%−0.9%Not working
StaplesXLPPlaybook+11.3%+6.1%+6.8%Working
Health careXLVPlaybook+11.2%+14.4%+16.1%Working
MunisMUBPlaybook+2.8%−0.7%−0.6%Not working
AAA CLOsJAAADesk addition+0.4%+1.1%+1.7%Working
Low volatilityUSMVDesk addition+5.0%+5.1%+6.3%Working

Why the desk additions are in:

  • AAA CLOs (JAAA) — Bill’s safest seat in credit — scored 72 and held in the Safety & Certainty model
  • Low volatility (USMV) — Saul’s factor board — low volatility is what the tape is rewarding while high beta and momentum are punished

How the check works — a favored name is Working when its trailing 3-month total return is ahead of the S&P 500 and its price sits above its 10-month average (the average of its last ten month-end closes); Not working when it is behind the S&P 500 over 3 months and below that average; anything in between is Mixed. Benchmark at this close: the S&P 500 (SPY) returned −0.0% over 3 months. Returns are total returns (dividends reinvested) from Yahoo adjusted closes, as of the October 30, 2026 close; this block refreshes with the site’s nightly close run. Membership: the regime playbook as the guide, plus additions the desks hold on their own boards, marked as desk additions.

Section 2The Data

What to expect — long-run returns The Street’s 10-year base case and the desk’s bull case, by asset class

Stocks 6.3% · Bonds 5.0% the Street’s base case, per year over 10 years
  • The base case is the average of published Wall Street long-horizon forecasts — the assumptions the big houses themselves build plans on
  • The bull case is the desk’s scenario: a return to long-run normal, not a boom
  • Build expectations on the base case; treat the bull case as something the market has to earn
Base case — Street averageBull case — desk scenario
Stocks
US large-cap stocks6 houses · range 3.1–9.0%
6.3%
10.0%
US small-cap stocks3 houses
7.3%
11.0%
Developed international stocks4 houses
7.2%
9.5%
Emerging-market stocks5 houses
7.2%
10.0%
Real assets & credit
Real estate (REITs)2 houses, definitions differ
7.1%
No desk bull case — base only
Investment-grade credit1 house published
6.1%
No desk bull case — base only
Bonds & cash
US bonds (Aggregate)4 houses · range 4.7–5.6%
5.0%
5.5%
High-yield bonds4 houses
6.0%
6.75%
Cash / T-bills3 houses · the bull case runs lower — rates fall in that world
3.4%
2.75%
  • The headline: in its base case the Street pays stocks only about 1.3 points a year more than bonds
  • Two of the six houses expect bonds to match or beat US stocks outright
  • A 60/40 portfolio works out to about 5.8% a year on the base case and 8.2% on the bull case
  • The bull case is normal, not euphoric: US stocks back to their long-run ~10% compounding needs earnings growth of about 8%, the shareholder yield of about 2%, and no shrinkage in valuations
  • Earned if AI productivity broadens, credit stays contained and the 10-year Treasury normalizes instead of rising
  • Private equity is left off the chart deliberately: house forecasts run from 9.2% to 15.9%, too dispersed to average honestly
Today’s earnings-yield spread — forward earnings yield 4.93% (1 ÷ 20.3 forward P/E) less the ~5.00% 10-year Treasury, October 23, 2026 close−0.07% ≈ zero

Stocks pay you nothing extra in current earnings yield over bonds today — the entire case for equities rests on future growth, which is exactly what the base and bull cases above are arguing about.

Base case: simple average of published 10-year nominal return forecasts — J.P. Morgan LTCMA 2027 edition (October 2026), BlackRock (August 2026), Vanguard (September 30, 2026), Goldman Sachs, Schwab (2026), Research Affiliates (December 31, 2025); houses per class shown on each row. Cross-check: the 43-firm Horizon Actuarial survey averages US stocks 6.5% and core bonds 4.9%. Bull case: the desk’s scenario, reviewed weekly. Compiled October 27, 2026. Illustrative and hypothetical — not a prediction; see Disclosures.

Macro dashboard Labeled readings — value, source and date on every panel

As of the October 30, 2026 board unless a panel states otherwise.

Fed Policy Bias
Fed funds3.75–4.00%
2-year Treasury4.56%
10-year Treasury4.93%
30-year Treasury5.31%
Curve — 10-year minus 3-month+0.77%
Spreads — AAA42bp
Spreads — BBB111bp
Spreads — high yield337bp
Source: Market close · Date: October 30, 2026 (AAA/BBB spreads: October 23, 2026)

How to read this:

  • Every spread is measured over US Treasury bonds of similar maturity — the federal government’s risk-free rate
  • A spread of 1.00% means those corporate bonds pay one percentage point more than Treasuries — investors demand extra yield for default risk
  • AAA is the highest credit rating (the safest borrowers, the thinnest spread)
  • BBB is the lowest investment-grade rating (the widest spread before ‘high yield’)
The 10-year Treasury — 2026 to here
4.04.55.0High 5.31% · 10-054.93%JanAprJulOct
Source: Yahoo (^TNX) daily closes · Through October 30, 2026 · The yield the whole regime call is priced off — it ended the week at 4.93%.
Credit spreads — what risk costs over Treasuries
AAA42bpBBB111bpHigh yield337bp
Source: ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads · AAA and BBB, October 23, 2026; high yield, October 26, 2026 · Credit is not confirming stress — the high-yield line is the one Bill watches against its 5.00% trigger.
High-yield spreads — three years against the flip line
3455.00% — Bill’s flip line3.26%Oct '23Jun '24Jan '25Aug '25Mar '26Oct '26
Source: ICE BofA U.S. High Yield OAS via FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · Weekly points, October 31, 2023 to October 29, 2026 · Latest 3.26% — 1.74 points under the 5.00% line where the credit-compensation read flips.
Fed policy bias — decision, pricing & projections
Hawkish tilt

Held at 3.75–4.00% on October 28 — and the only dissents wanted a hike. December is now the live meeting.

The October 28 decision
Funds rate — held3.75–4.00%
Vote10–2
Dissents — Cook & HammackFor a +25bp hike — a first this cycle
StatementGrowth upgraded to “strong” · will “deliver price stability”
Forward guidanceNone — Warsh let the statement speak
What the market prices
Hike at the December 8–9 meeting~72–74% priced
Implied funds rate — end of 2026≈ 4.06%
Implied funds rate — September 2027≈ 4.7%
Easing priced anywhere in 2027None

Futures price roughly three more hikes by September 2027 and no easing at all — market pricing sits on the other side of the easing-by-mid-2027 framework.

The Fed’s own projections — September SEP
Funds rate — end of 20264.1%
Funds rate — end of 20274.1%
Funds rate — longer run3.2%
Core PCE — 2026 / 20273.4% / 2.5%
Unemployment — end of 20264.1%

Sixteen of the eighteen officials who submitted projections pencilled in at least one more hike this year — and the dots refresh at the December meeting.

Distance from the target
Core PCE, year-on-year3.1%
Gap to the 2% target+1.1 points
Core PCE, September month+0.3%
Real policy rate (funds midpoint less core PCE)≈ +0.8%

The gap widened in September — core inflation is moving away from the target, not toward it, which is exactly the case the two dissenters were making.

Balance sheet & calendar
Balance sheet — total assets$6.75 trillion
Runoff (QT)Ended Dec 2025
Next decision — Dec 8–9Fresh SEP projections
2027 calendarRate votes at 7 of 8 meetings — one session turns strategy-only, no vote or statement (announced October 28)

The balance sheet has been broadly flat since runoff ended — reserve-management purchases now offset the remaining mortgage runoff. A balance-sheet task force reports to the FOMC early in 2027.

Sources: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement and press conference, October 28, 2026 · CME FedWatch, October 30, 2026, and fed funds futures, October 30, 2026 · Federal Reserve, September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (released September 16, 2026) · BEA, PCE price index, September 2026 (released October 29, 2026) · Federal Reserve H.4.1, week ended October 21, 2026
Recession watch
Low recession risk — next 12 months
LowWatchElevatedHigh

0 of 8 components sit in recession territory, and 1 is on watch — payrolls. The evidence is the board itself:

Early warnings — leading indicators 0 of 5 warning

The smoke detectors — they have turned before every modern recession, typically 6–18 months ahead.

Yield curve — 10-year minus 3-month+0.87%Clear
The bond market’s recession alarm
Flips red below 0% (inverted) · October 30, 2026
Leading Economic Index — 6-month change+0.6%Clear
Ten forward-looking series rolled into one index
Flips red on a sustained six-month fall · September 2026
ISM factory new orders55.3Clear
Factory new orders — demand before production
Flips red below 50 (contraction) · September 2026
Jobless claims — 4-week average196,750Clear
The fastest layoff signal there is
Flips red on a sustained climb above ~300,000 · Week ended October 24, 2026 · Trending down
High-yield spreads (OAS)3.37%Clear
What investors charge shaky borrowers
Stress zone — the flip line — at 5.00% · October 30, 2026
Where we are now — coincident indicators 0 of 3 in recession territory · 1 on watch

The confirmation — by the time these break, a recession is usually already starting.

Unemployment rate4.2%Clear
The share of workers without a job
Watch zone above 4.5% — it has held a 4.1–4.3% range since March · September 2026
Sahm rule0.00Clear
Unemployment’s momentum against its own 12-month low
Triggers at +0.50 — this reading is as far from the line as it gets · September 2026
Payrolls — 3-month average+51KWatch
Net hiring, smoothed over three months
Stall speed is +50K a month; negative means contraction · Jul–Sep 2026 (September alone +29K, after 60K of downward revisions)
Labor detail — context rows (not scored)
Job openings (JOLTS)7.1M
Employers’ unfilled demand for labor
August 2026, BLS · Down 256K on the month to the lowest since March — about one opening per unemployed person; the September print lands November 3
Wage growth — average hourly earnings+3.0% y/y
Pay growth across private nonfarm workers
September 2026, BLS · The slowest annual pace since May 2021 — pay is now rising more slowly than prices

How to read this: every component is a public series shown against the level that has marked recessions in the past — the threshold is printed on its row. The headline band counts the warnings rather than averaging them: Low means no early warning is flashing and nothing current has broken; Watch takes one leading warning or one coincident break; Elevated takes two or more leading warnings; High means the Sahm rule has triggered, or three or more warnings lit at once. No probability is attached and no score is computed behind the scenes — the lights are the evidence.

Sources: U.S. Treasury yields (October 28, 2026) · The Conference Board LEI and ISM Report On Business (September 2026) · U.S. Department of Labor (week ended October 24, 2026) · BLS Employment Situation (September 2026) and JOLTS (August 2026) · ICE BofA U.S. High Yield OAS via FRED (October 26, 2026). Updated as each series prints.
Inflation
Core CPIabout 2.4–2.5%
PCE headline, year-on-year3.6%
Core PCE3.1%
TrajectoryRising, energy-led
Next PCE printLate November (October data)
Source: BEA (PCE) · Date: September 2026 for PCE (released October 29, 2026)
Brent crude — against the desk’s trigger lines
6080100120$120 — extends Stagflation$100 — defuses it$113.43Nov '25Jan '26Mar '26Jun '26Aug '26Oct '26
Source: Yahoo (BZ=F) front-month daily closes · Through October 30, 2026 · The close at $113.43 is $6.57 below the $120 line that extends the Stagflation leg and $13.43 above the $100 line that would defuse it. Friday’s $117.55 board quote was an intraday December-contract print at the Hormuz spike — on a closing basis the front month peaked at $118.35 (March 31, 2026).
US federal debt
$40.44 trillion total
Held by the public$32.6 trillion
Share of GDProughly 127%
TrajectoryRising about $5 billion a day
Debt limit$41.104 trillion
Headroomroughly $0.9 trillion
Source: U.S. Treasury · Date: October 22, 2026
Money market assets
$7.94 trillion
Change on the weekUp $21.5 billion
Institutional$4.83 trillion
Institutional, year-on-yearUp 10.2%
Source: ICI · Date: Week ended October 21, 2026
Margin and leverage
4.48% of GDP — margin debt, September 2026

Margin debt peaked at 4.61% of GDP in June 2026 — the highest since 1997, across the full FINRA series.

Margin debt — September 2026$1.48 trillion
Series peak — June 20264.61% of GDP
Margin debt as a share of GDP — 24 months
Oct '24Apr '25Oct '25Apr '264.61%4.48%Sep '26
Source: FINRA Margin Statistics (debit balances) · GDP: BEA via FRED, quarterly · Each month’s margin debt against its quarter’s GDP. The gold bar is the series peak; the orange bar is the latest month.
Source: FINRA Margin Statistics, monthly (Rule 4521) · GDP: BEA via FRED · Latest: September 2026 — FINRA publishes in the third week of the following month; this panel refreshes monthly

Section 3Valuations, the Consumer & the World

Equity valuations
Forward P/E20.3x
CAPE40.6x
Forward P/E — against its 30-year average
30-year average 17.2x19xGuideSep 30, 202620.3xDesk boardOct 23, 2026
The Guide’s September 30 print was 19.0x; the desk board’s October 23 print is 20.3x — 3.1 points over the 30-year average and just under the Guide’s +1 standard deviation line at 20.5x.
CAPE (Shiller P/E) — against its 30-year average
30-year average 28.9x40.9xGuideSep 30, 202640.6xDesk boardOct 23, 2026
Cyclically adjusted earnings — ten years of inflation-adjusted profits in the denominator. Both vintages sit about 12 points over the 30-year average: the expensiveness is in the cycle-adjusted multiple, not one hot year.
Source: Current prints — desk board, October 23, 2026 · Long-run averages and September 30 prints: J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets, 4Q 2026 edition (data as of September 30, 2026) · Edition-maintained panel — updates quarterly when the new Guide lands, not nightly
Geopolitics rating
YELLOW — Cautious

Grant’s qualitative read, updated weekly — geopolitical temperature: Elevated. Drivers:

  • A tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, October 30 — harassment, not closure
  • Brent closed $113.43 Friday (December contract $117.55 intraday)
  • U.S. midterm elections Tuesday, November 3
Source: Grant — Politics & Geopolitics Strategist · qualitative read, updated weekly · Date: Week of October 30, 2026
Consumer savings rate
4.1% of disposable income
Amount saved$990.2 billion
July4.6%
Two-decade averageroughly 5.9%
The savings rate — the cushion is thinning
Two-decade average ≈ 5.9%4.6%Jul 2026BEA4.1%Aug 2026BEA
Source: BEA, personal saving rate · August 2026 · Households are saving a smaller share of income than the two-decade norm — less buffer if the labor leg breaks.
Source: BEA · Date: August 2026
Consumer sentiment
91.7 Conference Board Consumer Confidence

The headline survey on this board — the Conference Board’s is the sturdier of the two. It rebounded 7.5 points in October, off September’s revised 84.2 (first reported at 81.9, a 12-year low), as gasoline prices eased.

Present Situation Index120.4
Expectations Index72.6
The Board’s recession line for Expectations80 — still below it

Frame of reference: the index’s all-time high is 144.7 (2000) and it stood at 132.6 in February 2020, against a long-run average in the high 90s. October is a rebound off the floor, not a return to normal — and the expectations half stays under the line the Board itself associates with recession within a year.

University of Michigan — the second read
Sentiment index (final)48.0
Current conditions / expectations46.7 / 48.8
Year-ahead inflation expectations4.7%

Frame of reference: 48.0 is the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history — below the June 2022 low of 50.0, which stood as the record until this year; the all-time low is 44.8 (May 2026). Against a long-run average in the mid-80s, today’s print also sits below the level seen at the start of every recession since the survey began.

The two surveys measure different things: the Conference Board leans on how people see the job market; Michigan leans on personal finances and prices. They can honestly disagree — a household can feel secure about work and squeezed at the pump at the same time — and the gap between them is itself information.

Fear & Greed — the market’s mood (CNN)

Now 36 — Fear, at the October 28 close.

0 · Extreme fear50 · NeutralExtreme greed · 100
Previous close34
A week ago27
A month ago37
A year ago32
Michigan sentiment — below every recession start
Long-run average ≈ mid-80s50Jun 2022Prior record low44.8May 2026All-time low48Oct 2026Final
Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers · October 2026 final, 48.0 · The survey reads households' finances and prices; the Conference Board's jobs-based read (above) is higher — the gap between them is itself information.
Sources: The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Survey (October 2026, released October 27, 2026) · University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, final October 2026 (released October 23, 2026) · CNN Fear & Greed Index, as reported for the October 28, 2026 close (month- and year-ago readings as published October 26, 2026)
Redbook weekly retail sales
+9.3% same-store sales, year over year

The shopper is still spending — same-store sales rose +9.3% from a year ago, up from +9.0% the week before and well above the +5.2% pace of the same week last year.

Week ending October 24, 2026+9.3%
Prior week+9.0%
Same week a year ago+5.2%
Average of the last 13 weeks+8.7%
Redbook same-store sales — the weekly consumer tape
-3036912+5.2% a year ago+9.3%Jan '24Jul '24Jan '25Jul '25Jan '26Jul '26
Source: Redbook Research weekly release (via the FX Blue calendar record) · Week ending October 24, 2026 · Chart: weekly prints, November 2023 to October 2026.

Redbook tracks same-store sales — sales at stores open at least a year, so new stores don’t flatter the number — across a panel of large general-merchandise retailers: department stores, discount chains, apparel retailers, drugstores and warehouse clubs. It prints every Tuesday and is the fastest read on the consumer there is.

Source: Redbook Research (Johnson Redbook Index) · Updated as each weekly release prints · As of the week ending October 24, 2026
The consumer, in actions

Sentiment is what they say; this panel is what they do — the two together are the robust read.

Real consumer spending (PCE)≈ 0.0%
Inflation-adjusted spending — the broadest “do” there is
September 2026, BEA · Nominal spending rose 0.5%, but prices rose nearly as fast — real volume rose less than 0.1%, a step down from August’s +0.55%, the largest real gain since March 2025
Retail sales — control group+0.1%
The slice of retail that feeds GDP — strips out autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants
September 2026, Census Bureau · After +1.2% in August; the headline’s +0.8% was mostly gasoline (+6.4%)
Credit cards 90+ days late12.8%
Share of card balances in serious delinquency — the New York Fed’s quarterly count
Q2 2026 (released August 11; next report November 10) · Read it with the flow: newly-serious delinquencies are flat at ~7.0% — the 12.8% stock still counts old charged-off balances sitting on credit reports
Revolving credit−4.2%
Card borrowing at an annual rate — consumers paid cards down in August
August 2026, Federal Reserve G.19 · Balances of $1.352 trillion, down from July’s record
Sources: BEA, Personal Income and Outlays (September 2026) · U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales (September 2026) · Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Household Debt and Credit (Q2 2026) · Federal Reserve, G.19 Consumer Credit (August 2026). Updated as each series prints.

Market Technicals · Trent, Technical Analyst (CMT)

Long-term trend up. Short-term tape, softer.

Price leads fundamentals. The structure of the bull market is intact; the near-term internals say respect the tape, don’t chase it. Readings as of the October 30, 2026 close.

The trend ratings Long term, intermediate, short term — the reads that set the posture

Long-term trend

UP

The structural bull market is intact.

Intermediate trend

UP

50-day average 7,697.08 above the 150-day average 7,474.96.

Short-term trend

DOWN

Below the 25-day average of 7,719.73 — a near-term pullback inside the uptrend.

The rule behind the long-term rating

The 10-month moving average rule

  • One line decides the big question — judged on month-end closes against the 10-month moving average, and the response is graduated:
  • ● Structural Bull — month-end close above the line: stay invested
  • ● Market in Transition — the first month-end close below: slow portfolios down; capitulation and washout signals confirm or dispute the move to fuller defense — about 50% of the time, markets bottom in the first month after closing under the level
  • ● Bear Market — two consecutive month-end closes below: full defensive positioning rebalance
S&P 500 — October 30 close7,580.07
The line — 10-month moving average7,304.23
Distance above the line+3.8%

Status: Structural Bull

Last completed month-end (October 2026) closed above the line — 0 consecutive month-end closes below. Next verdict: the Monday, November 30 month-end close.

The tripwire

  • The verdict lands on month-end closes only — an intra-month dip below the line changes nothing
  • The first month-end close below = Transition: slow portfolios down. A second consecutive close below flips the playbook to full defense — portfolios de-risk as far as they go
  • No debate, no discretion: the line is the line
Nasdaq Composite — October 30 close25,437.00
Nasdaq — the line (10-month moving average)24,984.21
Nasdaq — distance above the line+1.8%
November tripwire — S&P 500 month-end close below≈7,345
November tripwire — Nasdaq month-end close below≈25,153

Next verdict: the Monday, November 30 month-end closes.

The internals Every metric labeled with its reference universe and date

Market Technicals Strength Score52 / 100 · Neutral
VIX — October 30 close19.42Positive
10under 20 · Positive20–30 · Volatilityover 30 · Dangerous40
VIX < 20 — Positive20–30 — Volatility> 30 — Dangerous
  • Desk rule: under 20, volatility is a green light; 20–30, respect it; over 30, dangerous — the zone, not the tick, sets the posture
Stocks above their 200-day average — S&P 500 members · October 3059.2% · 296 of 500 tracked
Advance / decline — NYSEOct 30: decliners beat advancers 1.8 to 1 (Reuters)
$NASI (McClellan Summation Index) — Nasdaq · October 29−699.51
$NAMO (McClellan Oscillator) — Nasdaq · October 29+32.99
Stocks above their 20-day average — S&P 500 members · October 3069.2% · 348 of 503 tracked
Stocks above their 20-day average — Nasdaq Composite members · October 3039.9% · 1360 of 3407 tracked
Stocks above their 50-day average — S&P 500 members · October 3060.2% · 302 of 502 tracked
New 52-week highs / lows — S&P 500 members · October 3030 highs / 4 lows
S&P 5007,580.07
10-year Treasury4.93%

Sources: breadth counts computed by the desk from S&P 500 member closes (Yahoo Finance daily data, October 30, 2026 close; 503 members tracked — moving-average counts use the 500–503 members with sufficient price history, and highs/lows use the 500 members with a full prior year). $NASI / $NAMO: StockCharts published readings through October 29, 2026 (the October 30 bars were not yet published at update time). NYSE advance / decline: as reported by Reuters for the October 30 session. The S&P 500 breadth rows (the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day average counts and the 52-week highs / lows), the Nasdaq Composite 20-day row, the VIX and the 10-month state refresh after every close on the same member-close basis (Nasdaq Composite: NASDAQ-listed common stocks — test issues, ETFs and preferred shares excluded); each breadth series keeps its own history, so the 30-day comparison is always the same series against itself. VIX zones are the desk’s standing rules: under 20 Positive, 20–30 Volatility, over 30 Dangerous.

Reading the McClellan gauges The frame of reference — where the extremes sit, and what they have meant

$NASI — Summation Index · Nasdaq

−699.51 · October 29, 2026 — latest published

−2,000−1,000 · washout line0+1,000 · overbought+2,000
  • The Summation Index is the running total of every day’s McClellan Oscillator — whether more stocks are rising than falling, added up over months
  • It normally lives between −1,000 and +1,000
  • Above +1,000, breadth has run hot for a long stretch: a stretched, late-stage tape
  • Below −1,000 is the washout zone — the October 2022 bear low, the October 2023 correction low and the April 2025 crash low all printed with this gauge under −1,000
  • That is why the desk’s washout tripwire sits on that line
  • Fading an extreme on this gauge means treating it as exhaustion rather than continuation: historically, the washout prints have been where forced selling ran out
  • The latest published reading, −700 (October 29), is deep in negative territory but still roughly 300 points short of the washout line — and it has improved for three straight sessions

$NAMO — McClellan Oscillator · Nasdaq

+32.99 · October 29, 2026 — latest published

−200−100 · oversold extreme0+100 · overbought extreme+200
  • The Oscillator is the fast version: the gap between the 19-day and 39-day averages of daily net advances
  • It swings around zero — above it, breadth momentum is positive; below it, negative
  • The classic extreme bands are ±100 — deep panic or euphoria prints reach toward ±150
  • Past +100, buying has historically run too fast to hold that pace
  • Past −100, selling has reached panic speed and has historically marked exhaustion points
  • Extremes are reference lines, not triggers by themselves — a strong trend can hold an extreme for days
  • The latest published reading, +33.0 (October 29), is positive — breadth momentum has turned up — but nowhere near the +100 overbought extreme

Capitulation — the gauge and the granular screen

  • Capitulation Score: 0 / 100 — not armed — as of the October 30, 2026 close
  • The Washout Watch only arms when the S&P 500 is at least 8% below its 52-week high; at these levels it isn’t
  • A score of 70+ would mark a washout worth buying; 85+ is historic
  • At the October 30 close it says: no panic, no capitulation, no signal — 0 of 6 core signals triggered

The granular screen — where capitulation is actually forming

Capitulation is forming in pockets, not across the board — 8 names fire, concentrated in Communication Services (2 of 21), Financials (2 of 36).

8 of 299 names fire 5 of 11 sectors show a setup 0 at maximum oversold (RSI ≤ 25) 3 with volume contracting into the low

NameSectorCloseRSI nowRSI at prior lowDivergenceVolume into the lowBelow 52-wk high
APP · OversoldCommunication Services228.5025.030.6 (10-14)MACD0.75× prior low block — contracting-68.9%
BAC · OversoldFinancials50.0127.724.1 (10-16)RSI + MACD0.72× prior low block — contracting-22.4%
NFLX · WashedCommunication Services62.0830.632.8 (10-05)MACD1.53× prior low block-46.4%
BKNG · WashedConsumer Discretionary148.1333.127.9 (10-07)RSI + MACD1.07× prior low block-32.1%
HLN · WashedHealth Care8.6633.133.0 (10-05)MACD1.42× prior low block-21.6%
DBSDY · WashedFinancials227.8433.631.7 (10-09)RSI0.85× prior low block — contracting-8.5%
BYDDY · WashedConsumer Discretionary8.7134.833.8 (10-14)MACD1.01× prior low block-39.0%
ARM · WashedTechnology205.9734.934.5 (10-16)RSI1.00× prior low block-53.1%

Sector roll-up — share of each sector’s members firing, median member RSI, and the sector fund’s own state:

Technology — 1 of 43 fire · median RSI 42.0 · XLK no fire 2%
Health Care — 1 of 25 fire · median RSI 59.2 · XLV no fire 4%
Financials — 2 of 36 fire · median RSI 53.5 · XLF no fire 6%
Consumer Discretionary — 2 of 80 fire · median RSI 57.3 · XLY no fire 2%
Consumer Staples — 0 of 30 fire · median RSI 61.5 · XLP no fire 0%
Energy — 0 of 10 fire · median RSI 69.6 · XLE no fire 0%
Industrials — 0 of 39 fire · median RSI 50.4 · XLI no fire 0%
Materials — 0 of 2 fire · median RSI 62.8 · XLB no fire 0%
Real Estate — 0 of 7 fire · median RSI 52.7 · XLRE no fire 0%
Communication Services — 2 of 21 fire · median RSI 43.5 · XLC no fire 10%
Utilities — 0 of 6 fire · median RSI 57.0 · XLU no fire 0%

How the screen works — a name fires when it sits at (or within 2% of) a new 2-week low, its 14-day RSI is at or under 35, and price makes a lower low while RSI or MACD makes a higher one than at the prior low (positive divergence — the sellers-are-exhausting signature, confirmed when volume in the new-low block runs below the prior low block’s). Oversold tiers: at or under 35 washed, at or under 30 oversold, at or under 25 maximum oversold. Universe: the governing 300; sector state from the 11 sector SPDR funds. Prices are Yahoo daily adjusted closes and share volume, as of the October 30, 2026 close; names with insufficient history are excluded, never estimated. This block refreshes with the site’s nightly close run.

Sectors · Eleven desks

Eleven desks. One scoreboard.

Every desk closes its report with a Strength Score from 0 to 100 — 0–20 broken, 21–40 weak, 41–60 neutral, 61–80 strong, 81–100 exceptional. Tap any desk for its report, score drivers and Timeless 10.

Hear it — 2 minutes: what the scoreboard measures, and why it matters

Q3 earnings season: GOOD and accelerating — 76.4% of 123 graded reporters beat, guidance balance +50. Full scoreboard on the Earnings tab.

Strength Scores, ranked best to worst Board of Friday, October 30, 2026 · scores refresh daily after the close — tap a bar to open its desk

Desk reports Same order — best to worst

Hear it — 112 seconds: why earnings drive the market, and how this tab works

Earnings · Q3 2026 season scoreboard · the reaction layer refreshes nightly after the close

Corporate earnings: GOOD — and accelerating.

76.4% of graded reporters beat, 12.2% missed, and the guidance balance is +50 — raises are outrunning cuts by a wide margin, and the back half of the season is running hotter than the front half.

  • Beat rate 76.4% — 94 beat / 14 met / 15 missed of 123 graded reporters (Tier 1 desk verdicts: 78.2% of 110; Tier 2 secondary: 61.5% of 13)
  • Guidance balance +50 — 58 raised vs 8 cut (24 maintained, 33 not given or not stated) — the forward gauge is strongly positive
  • Second half hotter — Oct 22–29 reporters: 77.1% beats, guidance +38 · Oct 13–21: 75.0% beats, guidance +12
Season so far — our 300-name universe123 of 300 graded · through Fri Oct 30, 2026 · updates automatically as new reports are graded
The print
BEAT 94
MET 14
MISS 15
76% beat rate
Guidance
Raised 58
Cut 8
+50 net guidance
Coverage
123 graded · 177 still to report

Sectors — the season by desk Graded reporters only · our 300-name universe

SectorReadBeat %Guidance balGradedBeat/Met/MissTrend
Real EstateGOOD100.0%+255/0/0—
UtilitiesGOOD100.0%+122/0/0—
Consumer StaplesGOOD100.0%+477/0/0—
TechnologyGOOD91.7%+91211/1/0● flat
Health CareGOOD86.7%+71513/1/1● flat
IndustrialsGOOD86.4%+142219/0/3▲ improving
Consumer DiscretionaryGOOD66.7%+71812/3/3▲ improving
EnergyGOOD66.7%+064/1/1—
FinancialsGOOD64.0%+42516/4/5▲ improving
Communication ServicesNEUTRAL55.6%+295/3/1—
MaterialsBAD0.0%+020/1/1—

Beats 94 reporters · ranked best to worst by surprise magnitude

CompanySectorDateEPS actual vs est (surprise)Revenue surpriseGuidanceStock since print
Etsy, Inc. ETSY · T1Consumer Discretionary10-281.00 vs 0.74 (+35.1%)—Raised-3.7%
Builders FirstSource, Inc. BLDR · T1Industrials10-291.51 vs 1.12 (+34.8%)—Maintained+16.2%
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS · T1Financials10-1317.01 vs 12.86 (+32.3%)—Not given+0.1%
DoorDash, Inc. DASH · T1Consumer Discretionary10-291.06 vs 0.82 (+29.3%)—Not givenn/a
The Hershey Co. HSY · T1Consumer Staples10-292.64 vs 2.11 (+25.1%)—Raised+1.1%
Capital One COF · T1Financials10-206.69 vs 5.50 (+21.6%)—Not given+1.6%
Vertiv Holdings Co. VRT · T1Industrials10-282.21 vs 1.82 (+21.4%)—Raised+11.5%
Quanta Services, Inc. PWR · T1Industrials10-296.06 vs 5.02 (+20.7%)—Raised+2.3%
Eli Lilly & Co. LLY · T1Health Care10-297.48 vs 5.68 (+31.7%)+8.0%Raised+10.0%
Merck & Co., Inc. MRK · T1Health Care10-292.49 vs 2.08 (+19.7%)—Raised+6.1%
Chubb CB · T1Financials10-207.66 vs 6.53 (+17.3%)—Not given+1.8%
Rivian Automotive RIVN · T1Consumer Discretionary10-29-0.48 vs -0.65 (+26.2%)+8.0%Raised+6.2%
SAP SAP · T2Technology10-212.14 vs 1.83 (+16.9%)—Not given+1.0%
Garmin Ltd. GRMN · T1Consumer Discretionary10-282.76 vs 2.41 (+14.5%)—Raised-5.8%
BlackRock, Inc. BLK · T1Financials10-1415.93 vs 13.97 (+14.0%)—Not given+7.6%
UnitedHealth Group UNH · T1Health Care10-134.69 vs 4.12 (+13.8%)—Raised+7.5%
Meta Platforms, Inc. META · T1Communication Services10-217.40 vs 6.54 (+13.1%)—Raised-11.8%
FedEx Corp. FDX · T1Industrials10-283.74 vs 3.34 (+12.0%)—Raised+2.9%
United Rentals URI · T1Industrials10-2115.55 vs 13.94 (+11.5%)—Raised+9.5%
EQT Corp. EQT · T1Energy10-270.42 vs 0.38 (+10.5%)—Maintained-1.6%
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. ISRG · T1Health Care10-203.00 vs 2.61 (+14.9%)+5.9%Not given-1.4%
Northrop Grumman NOC · T1Industrials10-207.89 vs 7.18 (+9.9%)—Raised+9.2%
Amphenol Corp. APH · T1Technology10-280.80 vs 0.73 (+9.7%)—Raised+1.4%
Chevron Corp. CVX · T1Energy10-305.28 vs 4.89 (+8.0%)+10.1%Not given+1.8%
American Electric Power AEP · T1Utilities10-282.23 vs 2.05 (+8.8%)—Raised-0.1%
Prologis PLD · T2Real Estate10-15—+8.6%Cut-1.9%
Texas Instruments TXN · T1Technology10-212.62 vs 2.42 (+8.3%)—Raised+5.7%
Coinbase Global COIN · T1Financials10-290.27 vs -0.23 (—)+6.6%Maintained-10.6%
Howmet Aerospace HWM · T1Industrials10-291.46 vs 1.37 (+6.6%)—Raised+2.1%
Lockheed Martin LMT · T1Industrials10-227.97 vs 7.49 (+6.4%)—Raised+15.5%
Netflix, Inc. NFLX · T1Communication Services10-200.87 vs 0.82 (+6.1%)—Cut-9.6%
NextEra Energy NEE · T2Utilities10-211.24 vs 1.18 (+5.1%)—Not given+6.2%
Tractor Supply TSCO · T1Consumer Discretionary10-220.43 vs 0.40 (+7.5%)+2.6%Maintained+3.8%
Starbucks SBUX · T1Consumer Discretionary10-290.80 vs 0.72 (+11.1%)-0.9%Maintained-1.7%
DexCom DXCM · T1Health Care10-290.73 vs 0.67 (+9.0%)+1.1%Raised+3.0%
ResMed RMD · T1Health Care10-292.91 vs 2.69 (+8.2%)+1.8%Not given-9.1%
Danaher DHR · T1Health Care10-212.11 vs 1.92 (+9.9%)-0.1%Raised+3.6%
Mondelez International MDLZ · T1Consumer Staples10-290.78 vs 0.71 (+9.9%)-0.1%Maintained+3.9%
AstraZeneca PLC AZN · T1Health Care10-302.79 vs 2.59 (+7.7%)+1.7%Maintained+7.0%
CBRE Group, Inc. CBRE · T1Real Estate10-222.05 vs 1.96 (+4.6%)—Maintained-4.3%
Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. TMO · T1Health Care10-216.68 vs 6.40 (+4.4%)—Raised+1.4%
Monolithic Power Systems MPWR · T1Technology10-298.19 vs 7.79 (+5.1%)+3.7%Raised+1.1%
General Motors GM · T1Consumer Discretionary10-203.70 vs 3.55 (+4.2%)—Maintained+5.6%
Morgan Stanley MS · T1Financials10-143.03 vs 2.91 (+4.1%)—Not given-1.3%
American Express Co. AXP · T1Financials10-234.68 vs 4.50 (+4.0%)—Raised-1.9%
ExxonMobil Holdings Corp. XOM · T1Energy10-304.23 vs 4.12 (+2.7%)+5.3%Not given+2.2%
Procter & Gamble PG · T2Consumer Staples10-222.00 vs 1.89 (+5.8%)+2.0%Maintained+3.0%
Reddit RDDT · T1Communication Services10-291.40 vs 1.33 (+5.3%)+2.3%Maintained-29.2%
Marsh McLennan MRSH · T1Financials10-152.03 vs 1.96 (+3.6%)+3.5%Not given+12.5%
Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. HLT · T1Consumer Discretionary10-272.45 vs 2.37 (+3.4%)—Raised+1.4%
S&P Global, Inc. SPGI · T1Financials10-274.58 vs 4.43 (+3.4%)—Raised+3.5%
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE · T1Financials10-303.63 vs 3.43 (+5.8%)+1.0%Raised+6.8%
Colgate-Palmolive Co. CL · T1Consumer Staples10-300.97 vs 0.92 (+5.4%)+0.7%Raised+2.3%
Royal Caribbean Group RCL · T1Consumer Discretionary10-276.57 vs 6.38 (+3.0%)—Raised+9.5%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. CDNS · T1Technology10-262.11 vs 2.05 (+2.9%)—Raised+1.8%
Mastercard, Inc. MA · T1Financials10-295.31 vs 5.17 (+2.7%)—Maintained+4.5%
Microsoft Corp. MSFT · T1Technology10-284.89 vs 4.73 (+3.4%)+1.8%Raised-1.7%
SLB SLB · T1Energy10-230.64 vs 0.62 (+3.2%)+1.7%Not given+8.5%
Johnson & Johnson JNJ · T1Health Care10-132.59 vs 2.53 (+2.4%)—Raised+3.6%
IBM IBM · T1Technology10-212.95 vs 2.86 (+3.1%)+1.4%Not given+2.5%
Philip Morris PM · T1Consumer Staples10-212.36 vs 2.30 (+2.6%)+1.1%Not given+4.4%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. ADP · T1Industrials10-282.82 vs 2.77 (+1.8%)—Raised+0.2%
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD · T1Consumer Staples10-300.92 vs 0.90 (+2.2%)+1.4%Raised+1.2%
Nasdaq NDAQ · T2Financials10-221.04 vs 1.02 (+2.0%)+1.4%Not givenn/a
CME Group CME · T1Financials10-213.02 vs 2.98 (+1.3%)+1.6%Not given+2.7%
Lam Research LRCX · T1Technology10-212.20 vs 2.17 (+1.4%)+1.0%Raised-8.3%
AbbVie, Inc. ABBV · T1Health Care10-303.82 vs 3.75 (+1.9%)+0.5%Raised+1.4%
MSCI MSCI · T1Financials10-205.11 vs 5.02 (+1.8%)+0.4%Not given+10.6%
Align Technology, Inc. ALGN · T1Health Care10-282.80 vs 2.77 (+1.1%)—Cut-2.4%
Caterpillar, Inc. CAT · T1Industrials10-297.20 vs 7.08 (+1.7%)+0.6%Maintained-12.7%
Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN · T1Consumer Discretionary10-291.89 vs 2.01 (-6.0%)-0.1%Raised-1.4%
ASML Holding NV ASML · T1Technology10-14——Raised-8.8%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. TSM · T1Technology10-15——Raised-5.6%
GE Aerospace GE · T2Industrials10-20——Raised-3.0%
RTX Corp RTX · T2Industrials10-20——Raised+4.0%
SpaceX SPCX · T1Industrials10-20——Not given-8.8%
Bloom Energy BE · T2Industrials10-22——Raised-6.7%
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. FIX · T1Industrials10-22——Not givenn/a
Union Pacific Corp. UNP · T1Industrials10-22——Maintained+5.6%
Public Storage PSA · T1Real Estate10-26——Raised+5.8%
Verizon Communications, Inc. VZ · T1Communication Services10-26——Raised+0.2%
Welltower, Inc. WELL · T1Real Estate10-26——Raised-2.5%
American Tower Corp. AMT · T1Real Estate10-27——Raised-0.3%
The Coca-Cola Co. KO · T1Consumer Staples10-27——Raised+1.5%
Visa, Inc. V · T1Financials10-27——Maintained+2.9%
Brinker International, Inc. EAT · T1Consumer Discretionary10-28——Raised+7.9%
GE Vernova, Inc. GEV · T1Industrials10-28——Raised-4.2%
Novartis NVS · T1Health Care10-28——Raised+2.5%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ORLY · T1Consumer Discretionary10-28——Raised-2.6%
SK hynix SKHYNIX · T1Technology10-28——Not givenn/a
T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS · T1Communication Services10-28——Raised+5.6%
EMCOR Group EME · T1Industrials10-29——Raised+0.1%
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. ICE · T1Financials10-29——Not given+8.3%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc. LHX · T1Industrials10-29——Raised+6.5%

Met 14 reporters · ranked best to worst by surprise magnitude

CompanySectorDateEPS actual vs est (surprise)Revenue surpriseGuidanceStock since print
Roblox RBLX · T1Communication Services10-29-0.32 vs -0.43 (+26.2%)-3.7%Cut-18.1%
Comcast CMCSA · T1Communication Services10-221.07 vs 0.98 (+9.2%)—Not given+5.2%
Domino's Pizza DPZ · T1Consumer Discretionary10-134.60 vs 4.36 (+5.5%)—Not given+0.9%
Deckers Outdoor DECK · T2Consumer Discretionary10-222.03 vs 1.82 (+11.5%)-2.0%Cut-3.9%
First Solar FSLR · T1Energy10-295.30 vs 4.67 (+13.5%)-4.7%Cut-1.4%
Charles Schwab SCHW · T2Financials10-151.69 vs 1.69 (+0.0%)—Not given-9.0%
ServiceNow, Inc. NOW · T1Technology10-281.00 vs 1.02 (-2.0%)—Raised-30.0%
Robinhood Markets, Inc. HOOD · T1Financials10-270.51 vs 0.55 (-7.3%)—Not given-10.1%
Abbott Laboratories ABT · T1Health Care10-21——Maintained+3.7%
Tesla TSLA · T2Consumer Discretionary10-21——Not given+3.5%
Blackstone, Inc. BX · T1Financials10-22——Not given+8.2%
Spotify Technology SA SPOT · T1Communication Services10-22——Raised+13.0%
Ecolab, Inc. ECL · T1Materials10-27——Maintained+4.9%
HSBC Holdings HSBC · T1Financials10-27——Maintained-6.3%

Misses 15 reporters · ranked best to worst by surprise magnitude

CompanySectorDateEPS actual vs est (surprise)Revenue surpriseGuidanceStock since print
United Airlines UAL · T1Industrials10-202.54 vs 2.57 (-1.2%)-0.1%Not given+6.6%
The Sherwin-Williams Co. SHW · T1Materials10-273.63 vs 3.65 (-0.5%)—Maintained-0.8%
Alphabet, Inc. GOOGL · T1Communication Services10-28—-0.5%Maintained-13.9%
Progressive PGR · T1Financials10-144.37 vs 4.42 (-1.1%)—Not given+3.8%
Stryker SYK · T1Health Care10-293.52 vs 3.55 (-0.8%)-1.5%Cut-6.4%
Waste Management, Inc. WM · T1Industrials10-272.15 vs 2.18 (-1.4%)—Maintained-1.0%
Interactive Brokers IBKR · T2Financials10-150.67 vs 0.68 (-1.5%)—Not given-10.6%
Moody's MCO · T2Financials10-214.14 vs 4.25 (-2.6%)-2.9%Maintained+3.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG · T1Consumer Discretionary10-280.27 vs 0.29 (-6.9%)—Maintained+11.0%
Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG · T1Energy10-293.62 vs 4.06 (-10.8%)—Raised+10.9%
D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI · T1Consumer Discretionary10-292.67 vs 3.00 (-11.0%)—Cut+2.1%
Carvana Co. CVNA · T1Consumer Discretionary10-280.39 vs 0.44 (-11.4%)—Raised+15.6%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM · T1Financials10-13——Not given+0.8%
Bank of America Corp. BAC · T1Financials10-14——Raised-7.3%
The Boeing Co. BA · T1Industrials10-27——Maintained-8.9%

Style Factors · Saul Rosenberg, Style Factor Strategist

The right part of the pond to fish in.

Saul reads which style factors are leading and which are lagging, tracked through the ETFs that hold them.

Hear it — why style factors?

Saul Rosenberg, the desk’s style factor strategist, on what factors are in plain terms, why their leadership rotates, and what this map is used for — told through the fishing rule behind the whole tab: find the corner of the lake where the fish are feeding, and notice early when they start to move. Evergreen — the method, not the month.

Why factors matter — about 2½ minutes

What the last month showed

Saul’s monthly update, about 3 minutes: which styles led and lagged over the month and the trailing quarter, and whether that is a continuation of the bigger-picture trend or a counter-trend pivot to new emerging momentum. Updated after every month-end close.

What the last month showed — October 2026

The read Saul’s conclusion, up front · November 1, 2026 close

Dividend leads the month at +11.3% and AI enablers & adopters trails at −11.7% — 13 of the 32 trackers rose in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) returned −1.1%. Only 7 of the 32 are positive at every horizon: Value (IVE), Dividend (SCHD), Low volatility (USMV), International low-vol high dividend (LVHI), Dividend (HDV), MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX), Health care (PINK). The AI-power basket is the leak: 6 of its seven trackers sit in the month’s worst twelve.

TOP 3 — leading the month

  • Dividend (HDV) +11.3% — positive at every horizon — +5.8% (3M), +15.7% (6M), +34.8% (12M)
  • Dividend (SCHD) +9.6% — positive at every horizon — +3.4% (3M), +14.1% (6M), +38.4% (12M)
  • MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX) +8.7% — positive at every horizon — +0.7% (3M), +4.2% (6M), +36.8% (12M)

WORST 3 — trailing the month

  • AI enablers & adopters (ALAI) −11.7% — −7.6% over three months, +8.9% over twelve
  • Freedom-weighted EM (FRDM) −11.4% — −9.4% over three months, +31.0% over twelve
  • Momentum — US (SPMO) −10.8% — −7.2% over three months, +12.9% over twelve
  • Leader-to-laggard spread on the month: 23.0 points (HDV +11.3% vs ALAI −11.7%)

Factor Leadership Strength — how decisively one style complex is leading: 72 / 100 · Strong

Where the returns are coming from 1-month total returns, best to worst · November 1, 2026 close

Fish here:

  • Dividend (HDV +11.3% — the best tracker on the tab this month)
  • Dividend (SCHD +9.6%)
  • MLP & energy infrastructure (MLPX +8.7%)
  • Health care (PINK +6.4%)
  • Low volatility (USMV +5.0%)
  • Value (IVE +4.8%)
  • Large-cap equal weight (RSP +4.5%)
  • International low-vol high dividend (LVHI +4.2%)
  • Developed ex-U.S. (FNDF +1.1%)
  • US infrastructure development (PAVE +0.9%)
  • Mid-cap (IJH +0.9%)
  • Developed ex-U.S. (EFA +0.5%)
  • Small-cap (IWM +0.1%)
  • The only trackers up over the month — in a month the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 1.1%

Do not fish here, for now:

  • AI power basket — 6 of its seven trackers are in the month’s worst twelve
  • Industrial renaissance (AIRR −5.6%)
  • Growth (IVW −5.7%)
  • Energy transformation (PWRD −7.9%)
  • Smart grid (GRID −8.0%)
  • Emerging markets (GEM −8.5%)
  • Emerging markets (EEM −8.6%)
  • Speculative growth (ARKK −8.8%)
  • Technology (XLK −9.3%)
  • High beta (SPHB −10.1%)
  • Momentum — US (SPMO −10.8%)
  • Freedom-weighted EM (FRDM −11.4%)
  • AI enablers & adopters (ALAI −11.7% — now the worst tracker on the tab)

The factor map Total returns, dividends reinvested · November 1, 2026 close

Style factorETF1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months
Reference — S&P 500, cap-weightedSPY−1.1%−1.2%+5.4%+12.0%
Reference — Nasdaq 100QQQ−6.9%−3.6%+2.6%+10.3%
Size — Mega-cap, S&P 500 Top 50XLG−3.4%−1.5%+0.6%+3.3%
Size — Mega-cap, S&P 100OEF−2.1%−1.5%+5.1%+9.1%
Size — Large-cap, equal-weightedRSP+4.5%−0.1%+8.5%+18.0%
Size — Mid-capIJH+0.9%−2.4%+1.3%+14.4%
Size — Small-capIWM+0.1%−4.7%+0.5%+14.6%
Style — ValueIVE+4.8%+1.7%+8.0%+16.6%
Style — GrowthIVW−5.7%−3.6%+3.2%+8.2%
Momentum — USSPMO−10.8%−7.2%+1.7%+12.9%
Quality — USSPHQ−2.3%−2.7%+3.1%+13.3%
Multi-factor — Quality + Value + MomentumQLC−2.0%−2.9%+4.5%+13.0%
Speculative / low qualityARKK−8.8%−5.6%+5.0%−9.2%
High betaSPHB−10.1%−5.9%+1.8%+20.2%
DividendSCHD+9.6%+3.4%+14.1%+38.4%
Low volatilityUSMV+5.0%+1.7%+9.5%+12.1%
International — Developed ex-U.S.EFA+0.5%−3.8%+2.8%+13.1%
International — Emerging marketsEEM−8.6%−8.9%−4.3%+12.5%
International — Developed ex-U.S. (reference point)FNDF+1.1%−3.0%+4.7%+26.7%
International — Emerging markets (reference point)GEM−8.5%−9.1%−3.8%+13.2%
Portfolio — International low-vol high dividendLVHI+4.2%+1.5%+8.3%+28.1%
Portfolio — High dividend, USHDV+11.3%+5.8%+15.7%+34.8%
Portfolio — S&P 500 premium income (covered-call overlay)GPIX−0.7%−0.5%+6.1%+13.2%
Portfolio — MLP & energy infrastructureMLPX+8.7%+0.7%+4.2%+36.8%
AI power basket — Smart grid infrastructureGRID−8.0%−7.6%−13.4%+5.6%
AI power basket — Energy transformationPWRD−7.9%−7.2%−13.0%−4.6%
AI power basket — Technology (also the site’s Tech sector ETF)XLK−9.3%−3.6%+11.2%+20.0%
AI power basket — Emerging markets, freedom-weighted (trades like the AI basket — see below)FRDM−11.4%−9.4%−0.9%+31.0%
AI power basket — AI enablers & adoptersALAI−11.7%−7.6%+3.0%+8.9%
AI power basket — US infrastructure developmentPAVE+0.9%−2.2%−5.4%+11.8%
AI power basket — American industrial renaissanceAIRR−5.6%−8.9%−22.5%−1.3%
Health care stability — Health care, actively managedPINK+6.4%+3.6%+16.8%+22.7%

Source: Saul’s Factor Map, November 1, 2026. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Potential emerging momentum Bottoming on volume · November 1, 2026 close

What identifies it — all four, or it is not on the list:

1 · Down over one month — 100 of the 300 brands are in the washed-out pool 2 · Up over both the last two weeks and the last week — 16 names have turned 3 · Last five sessions’ volume at least 1.15× the prior twenty sessions’ pace — 100 of the 300 are running hot 4 · Close at least 2% off its ten-day low — VRT clears it at +19.6%

Firing now — confirmed emerging momentum:

  • VRT (Vertiv Holdings Co.) — all four legs: −5.5% on the month, +12.6% over two weeks, volume 1.83×, close +19.6% off its ten-day low
  • SKHY (SK hynix, Inc.) — all four legs: −22.9% on the month, +9.3% over two weeks, volume 1.59×, close +13.3% off its ten-day low
  • CDNS (Cadence Design Systems, Inc.) — all four legs: −6.5% on the month, +2.6% over two weeks, volume 1.51×, close +5.9% off its ten-day low
  • MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems) — all four legs: −11.0% on the month, +0.1% over two weeks, volume 1.49×, close +6.3% off its ten-day low
  • ORCL (Oracle Corp.) — all four legs: −5.0% on the month, +1.9% over two weeks, volume 1.44×, close +4.1% off its ten-day low
  • CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.) — all four legs: −1.3% on the month, +6.7% over two weeks, volume 1.21×, close +15.9% off its ten-day low
Show all the screen data

Volume at the lows (factor trackers):

  • Factor trackers: none of the 32 pass all four — none is down on the month and up on both weeks with confirmed volume
  • Volume is running hot instead — HDV 1.75×; IVW 1.73×; ALAI 1.52×; LVHI 1.30×; EEM 1.22× — IVW, ALAI, EEM at their lows, HDV, LVHI on strength

The pass, name by name:

  • Across the 300 brands, 6 names pass all four at Sunday’s close — CDNS (−6.5% on the month, +2.6% over two weeks, volume 1.51×, close +5.9% off its ten-day low); CMG (−1.3% on the month, +6.7% over two weeks, volume 1.21×, close +15.9% off its ten-day low); ORCL (−5.0% on the month, +1.9% over two weeks, volume 1.44×, close +4.1% off its ten-day low); VRT (−5.5% on the month, +12.6% over two weeks, volume 1.83×, close +19.6% off its ten-day low); SKHY (−22.9% on the month, +9.3% over two weeks, volume 1.59×, close +13.3% off its ten-day low); MPWR (−11.0% on the month, +0.1% over two weeks, volume 1.49×, close +6.3% off its ten-day low)

Turned, volume not yet confirming:

  • 10 names are down over one month and up over both the last two weeks and the last week — UAL +8.5% (0.92×), DAL +6.3% (0.74×), SPHR +5.4% (0.56×), SNPS +2.9% (0.91×), MS +2.1% (1.03×)
  • They join the list only when volume confirms

Volume at fresh lows:

  • 17 names are making fresh three-week closing lows on at least 1.15× volume — RDDT 3.40×, NOW 3.00×, GOOGL 2.71×, MELI 2.02×, NU 1.65×
  • A bottom needs the price turn to follow — watch, do not chase

Screen: 300-brand universe and the 32 factor trackers, adjusted closes and share volume, Yahoo Finance daily data, November 1, 2026 close. The four legs: one-month return negative (calendar month, adjusted); up over both the last ten and last five sessions; five-session volume at least 1.15× the prior twenty sessions; close at least 2% off its ten-day closing low. Climax lows are fresh fifteen-session closing lows on the same volume test. A screen is a starting list, not a recommendation. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

Selection · The investment process · October 30, 2026 close — the tilt, technicals and style answers refresh nightly

Selection: the investment process.

Section 1 · The Tilt The summary conclusion, up front

The tilt — the summary conclusion

Tilt: quality, dividends, low volatility, value and equal weight — over high beta, momentum, small cap and emerging markets

Leadership (1-month, blended with 3): HDV +11.3% · SCHD +9.6% · MLPX +8.7%

No turn in progress: the last five sessions still belong to the quality, defensive and dividend cluster, and no challenger is leading the short windows.

How the language is set — nightly, from the factor map: the headline tilt names the leading style cluster on a 1-month window blended with 3 months. A challenger leading the last two sessions prints a turn watch; leading the last five sessions confirms a turn in progress; the headline flips only when the challenger takes the 1-month lead. As of the October 30, 2026 close · refreshed after every close.

Hear it — about 2 minutes: why this tab exists

Paul, the desk’s head of portfolio management, on why scaling advice demands a repeatable process — constant monitoring of the few things that drive markets, until the information itself tells you what part of the pond to fish in.

Overall posture today: YELLOW — stay invested, defensively tilted

  • Macro: Yellow.
  • Technicals: Yellow (mixed) — long-term and intermediate green, short term on the line.
  • Style momentum: Red / defensive.
  • Long-term rule says stay invested — S&P 500 above its 10-month average
  • Nothing in this funnel says chase risk today

Investment Selection Framework

A scalable investment process that identifies important areas for investment by asking a handful of key questions

Q1 · Macro risk regimeHow much risk the world is paying you to take
▼
Q2 · TechnicalsWhat the tape confirms
▼
Q3 · Style factors rewardedWhat the market is paying for now
▼
Q4 · Major factor tiltsThe big either-or calls
▼
Q5 · Sector leadersThe ponds
▼
Q6 · Stocks inside themThe fish

Q1 · What’s the current macro risk regime?

Answer: Leaving Reflation, tipping into Stagflation — Deflation dominant across 2027  YELLOW

  • Fed held at 3.75–4.00% at the Oct 28 meeting (10–2, both dissents for a hike); a December hike is about 72–74% priced
  • 10-year at 4.93%; high-yield spreads 337bp (Amber)
  • Geopolitics Elevated — Brent closed $113.43 Friday ($117.55 intraday on the December contract); core PCE 3.1% year over year (September)
  • Against that: Recession Watch all-clear; business and credit cycles still Expansion
  • Yellow, not red — slowing with re-accelerating inflation, not a recession call

Favored in this regime — the regime’s overweight basket, from the Macro tab’s positioning of record:

  • Gold and real assets
  • Utilities, staples, health care — the defensive compounders
  • The quality factor and munis
  • Energy and power — a Stagflation trade to harvest, not marry
  • Long bonds — the 2027 prize, once the hiking cycle credibly ends

Q2 · What are the technicals saying?

Answer: YELLOW — long-term and intermediate green; the short term is on the line

  • green — long-term · S&P 500 7,580.07 · 10-month average 7,304.23 · +3.8% above the line
  • green — intermediate · 50-day 7,697.08 above the 150-day 7,474.96, by 3.0%
  • down — short-term · close below the 25-day (7,719.73) and the 50-day (7,697.08) — a pullback inside the longer uptrend
  • 200-day average 7,309.76 — the close is above it
  • Breadth · 69.2% of S&P 500 names above their 20-day average (348 of 503), vs 22.7% a month ago · VIX 19.42
  • The 10-month rule says stay invested; the short-term tape says do not add risk aggressively
  • Latest month-end close 7,580.07 (October 30, 2026) — above the line, no strike · next verdict Monday, November 30: a close below about 7,345 prints the first strike — Market in Transition; a second straight close below it means a bear market and full defense

Q3 · What style factors are being rewarded?

Answer: NO — RED / DEFENSIVE

It is a defensive-biased tape. The data:

  • High beta still fails at 1 month: SPHB −10.1% vs USMV +5.0%
  • And XLY +6.0% vs XLP +11.3% on the site's 1-month sector-ETF set — staples still lead discretionary
  • Dividend (SCHD +9.6%) and value (IVE +4.8% vs growth IVW −5.7%) confirm it

Being rewarded now — the top of the factor map, 1-month · 3-month:

  • HDV (dividend) +11.3% · +9.4%
  • SCHD (dividend) +9.6% · +7.5%
  • MLPX (energy infrastructure) +8.7% · +4.1%
  • PINK (health care) +6.4% · +3.8%
  • USMV (low volatility) +5.0% · +5.1%
  • IVE (value) +4.8% · +3.2%

Six months ago it was the mirror image — end of April 2026, same map, same windows:

  • The technology and AI cluster led: XLK +20.0% · SPMO +19.3% · GRID +16.8% at 1 month
  • High beta beat low volatility by 14 points (SPHB +16.1% vs USMV +2.1%) — the risk-on tests passed green
  • The defensive cluster that leads today sat at the bottom of the map (HDV +1.2% · USMV +2.1% at 1 month)
  • Leadership rotates — that is why this question is re-asked every night

Q4 · What are the Major Factor Tilts?

LargevsSmall
U.S.vsDeveloped internationalNo Edge
U.S.vsEmerging markets
ValuevsGrowth
Cap weightvsEqual weight
High betavsLow volatility

The winner of each pair, on the blended read — 1 month blended with 3 months, the tilt basis; a pair inside a point either way reads No Edge. Q4 answer today: large over small, U.S. over emerging markets, value over growth, equal weight over cap weight, low volatility over high beta — no edge between the U.S. and developed international.

Q5 · Top 3 sector ponds — 1-month sector-ETF momentum

Pond1-month ETFTimeless 10 breadth scoreWhy it is here
1. Energy (XLE)+12.25%95.0Best 1-month sector and near-perfect Timeless breadth — the Stagflation trade to harvest, not marry
2. Utilities (XLU)+7.69%55.0Defensive plus AI power demand; breadth improved from 5.0 in September
3. Staples (XLP)+7.19%100.0Perfect Timeless breadth — 10 of 10 green — and the defensive leg of Q3

Sharpe, Sortino, alpha and beta are trailing 3-year figures; alpha is versus SPY, annualized over the same 3 years. A breed table, not a buy list — the framework above decides what is wanted today.

Q6 · Fish first — stocks in the top ponds

Team picks first: Timeless names with a green Trend, in the top ponds

  • Energy — green: XOM, CVX, EOG, LNG, SU, CNQ, SHEL, TTE, EQNR (9 of 10; WMB is yellow)
  • Utilities — green: DUK, SO, AEP, IBDRY (NEE, SRE and NGG are yellow)
  • Staples — green: COST, WMT, PG, CL, KO, MNST, PM, CART, OR, NESN (10 of 10)
  • Analyst favs in these ponds: none in the latest public Baird actions.

Section 3 · The Stack Best in breed by 3-year Sharpe — ranked best to worst

CategoryBest in breed (3Y Sharpe)SharpeSortinoAlpha vs SPY (ann., 3-yr)Beta
ValueIWD1.281.87+4.27%0.72
Multi-factorQLC1.261.84+2.25%0.97
U.S. momentumSPMO1.221.77+5.26%1.26
Developed ex-U.S.FNDF1.211.76+6.14%0.72
U.S. large / Mega-capOEF1.161.69+0.89%1.03
DividendVIG1.091.60+1.06%0.72
U.S. qualityQUAL1.031.51−0.81%0.91
GrowthIVW1.021.47−1.05%1.23
Sector — FinancialsXLF1.001.42+3.14%0.76
Low volatilityUSMV0.951.35+1.76%0.47
Equal weightRSP0.941.39−0.21%0.78
Sector — TechnologyXLK0.941.34−1.53%1.48
Sector — IndustrialsXLI0.881.29−0.57%0.89
Emerging marketsGEM0.811.16+1.10%0.86
High betaSPHB0.791.12−5.47%1.56
Sector — UtilitiesXLU0.741.05+6.23%0.33
Sector — CommunicationXLC0.741.05−1.91%0.86
Small capIWM0.670.99−4.91%1.12
Mid capIJH0.640.94−5.46%0.99
Sector — EnergyXLE0.620.84+5.87%0.45
Sector — StaplesXLP0.600.87+4.65%0.19
Sector — Health CareXLV0.600.87+1.59%0.44
Sector — DiscretionaryXLY0.500.72−9.42%1.16
Sector — Real EstateXLRE0.500.71−0.49%0.52
Sector — MaterialsXLB0.480.70−4.82%0.77

Portfolios · Flagship and Satellite suites

The Suites

Differentiated Portfolios

Different edges, one standard: portfolios built to cover the market’s leadership exposures through a full cycle — each built its own way, governed by its own selection rules, and tracked in the open every day. Open any block for the full portfolio: holdings, weights, mixes and performance live behind its name.

Built by the analyst team. Every name chosen on research, tracked live from entry.

Hear it first — the idea behind the shelf, about 2 minutes: why the models are built the way they are, what makes a portfolio a flagship or a satellite, and the one rule that governs the whole shelf.

Flagship Suite The core portfolios — the biggest portion of a portfolio, or all of it. Choose a core first

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Satellite Suite Specialists added around a core, when a strategy resonates

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 4 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Hear it — about 2 minutes

Risk-Off Timeless 10The defensive seat of the Timeless program — the ten built for the risk-off tape.In formation — its page opens when the book is set
4-ETF Global PassiveA four-fund global passive core — the simplest possible center for the shelf.In formation — its page opens when the book is set

Portfolios · Flagship Suite

Optimal Portfolio

The whole analyst team’s work, expressed as one dynamic allocation — voted by the CIO, reviewed monthly, tracked in the open.

Please read: The Optimal Portfolio is a hypothetical model portfolio, entered at the Friday, October 23, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Performance: since inception · Oct 25, 2026: +0.47% as of October 30, 2026 close — price-only, dividends excluded, weights as published.

Current mix & holdings November slate · voted by the CIO October 31, 2026 · entered October 23, 2026 — November additions at the October 30 close · reviewed monthly

Equities · 50% Bonds · 35% Alternatives · 9% Dry Powder · 6%
The read:
  • The master trend passed its October month-end test — the S&P 500 closed 3.78% above its 10-month average — so the dial moves part-way toward risk: equities 50, dry powder down to 6
  • Equities follow the Factor Momentum ranking — energy, health care and dividend payers lead — and half the index exposure now runs through covered-call funds (GPIX, GPIQ) that pay monthly premium income and cushion the path
  • Bonds stay front-end and floating (SHY, JAAA) plus FLXR at 6% — a documented CIO exception to the trend gate, granted for its yield; commodities are three diversified no-K-1 baskets, and Bitcoin sits out under the CIO’s three-timeframe rule, re-entering at 2% when all three of its trends are positive again
HoldingTickerClassWeightEntry priceIntermediateLong-termShort-termRole in the mix
SPDR EnergyXLEEquity10%69.33UP 8.6%UP 19.3%UP 5.9%The bet — the shock’s earnings stream; strongest long-term cushion in the sleeve
SPDR Health CareXLVEquity9%179.28UP 7.8%UP 16.1%UP 6.1%Defensive growth — participates without the beta
Schwab DividendSCHDEquity8%35.27UP 4.4%UP 11.3%UP 5.5%Equity ballast — dividend income, beta 0.52
SPDR S&P 500SPYEquity5%759.97UP 3.2%UP 4.2%DOWN −1.8%Core market exposure — half the index line; the other half runs in covered-call form (GPIX)
Goldman S&P 500 Premium IncomeGPIXEquity5%55.14UP 3.3%UP 4.5%DOWN −1.4%Covered-call S&P 500 — monthly premium income (8.55% distribution rate) on a cushioned path; passes the gate outright
SPDR StaplesXLPEquity5%88.26UP 1.0%UP 6.8%UP 5.2%Lowest-beta equity (0.19); Stagflation ballast
SPDR TechnologyXLKEquity4%183.23UP 5.9%UP 6.2%DOWN −6.5%Growth toehold — a Factor Momentum seat: held at full weight under the integration rule; its exit discipline is the factor model’s sentinel, not the short-term dip
Dividend GrowthDGROEquity2%81.03UP 2.9%UP 8.3%UP 3.8%New — the Factor Momentum model’s first reserve steps in; dividend growth on a defensive tape (beta 0.43)
Goldman Nasdaq-100 Premium IncomeGPIQEquity2%54.29UP 2.8%UP 1.9%DOWN −4.6%The Nasdaq toehold in covered-call form — replaces QQQ; monthly premium (10.54% distribution rate), lower beta
1–3Y TreasurySHYBond15%81.50UP 0.1%UP 0.7%UP 0.5%Primary ballast — front-end yield without duration risk
AAA CLOJAAABond14%50.61UP 1.0%UP 1.7%UP 0.2%Floating-rate ballast-plus — 1-year max drawdown −0.4%
TCW Flexible IncomeFLXRBond6%38.20DOWN −0.3%UP 0.1%UP 0.8%CIO exception to the trend gate — granted October 31, 2026 for its ~5.5% yield (Bill’s top-scored core fund); passes the long-term test, misses intermediate by 0.31; re-voted at the December review
Harbor CommodityHGERAlternative3%35.58UP 8.3%UP 11.9%DOWN −0.7%Diversified commodity basket, no K-1 — the CIO’s commodity choice (October 31, 2026)
abrdn All CommodityBCIAlternative3%25.74UP 5.4%UP 6.7%DOWN −1.4%Diversified commodity basket, no K-1 — Bloomberg all-commodity strategy
Invesco Commodity No K-1PDBCAlternative3%20.02UP 7.5%UP 14.9%UP 1.2%Diversified commodity basket, no K-1 — optimum-yield strategy
T-Bills 0–3MSGOVDry Powder6%—ExemptExemptUPDry powder — held in T-bills for opportunistic buying; moves when the capitulation rule fires or the CIO directs it; ~4.2% carry

Intermediate: 50-day average vs 150-day average (gap shown). Long-term: price vs its 10-month average. Short-term: close vs its 25-day average. Figures at the October 30, 2026 close. Every holding passes the trend gate except FLXR, held under the documented CIO exception in its row. Bitcoin is out under the CIO’s three-timeframe rule: the portfolio owns it only when its short, intermediate and long-term trends are all positive — its short term turned negative in the October 29 selloff — and it re-enters at 2% when all three are positive again. Gold and long-duration Treasuries remain excluded this month — each fails at least one trend test.

  • Follow along: the monthly Optimal Portfolio report and its episode of The Heat Map podcast carry every change, the CIO’s vote and the reasoning
  • Tactical trading lives separately, on the Trading tab

Portfolios · Flagship Suite

The Timeless 25

The Blue Chip Brands flagship: twenty-five durable compounders, 4% per name, drawn from the eleven sector desks’ best ideas · entry October 23, 2026 · next review January 22, 2027.

Please read: Timeless portfolios are hypothetical model portfolios tracked live from October 23, 2026. Returns are equal-weighted and price-only (dividends excluded; no fees, taxes, or slippage). They do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

About the 5-year lookbacks below Hypothetical backtest

  • Every portfolio panel on this page — the Timeless 25 and each Timeless 10 — includes a 5-year lookback
  • Read it for what it is: a hypothetical backtest that applies today’s holdings to the five years from October 22, 2021 to October 23, 2026
  • It is NOT the live track record — live tracking started October 23, 2026, and the live since-inception returns shown above each lookback are the actual record
  • The lookback also carries survivorship and look-ahead bias: these holdings were chosen in October 2026 with full knowledge of the past five years, so the exercise flatters the portfolios by construction
  • Even with that bias, Staples and Real Estate trailed SPY over this window — that is in the panels too, unedited

Holdings Equal weight · tracked live from entry

TickerCompanyCountryEntry priceCurrent priceSince inception · Oct 23, 2026WeightTrendLong-termIntermediateShort-term

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

Global Core Equity

The ballast — broad, quality-tilted, regime-directed. It trades as the 42% core of the Investor Assembly.

  • LOGO is the engine — active and regime-directed. The largest line in the core carries the global consumption themes — consumer spending, business innovation spending and government spending — through the brands that lead them; fully cyclical and growth-oriented when the regime pays for risk, positioned very defensively when it does not
  • Broad exposure, deliberately tilted: S&P 500 (VOO), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and fundamental international developed markets (FNDF), with tilts to technology and AI (XLK), defense modernization (SHLD) and the quality factor (QLC) — the style factor work says quality is the smart pond
  • Ballast and diversifiers, dynamic: quality, lower-volatility dividends (SCHD), a gold line (GLD) and a bitcoin line (HODL); the core’s allocations move when the regime warrants — more static than LOGO, never frozen

Building blocks Weights inside the core are regime-directed and move — the core is tracked day by day as the center of the Investor Assembly

ComponentVehicleRole
Active brands coreLOGOThe engine — global consumption leaders, actively managed and regime-directed
US broad marketVOOFoundation exposure
Nasdaq-100QQQGrowth foundation
International developedFNDFFundamental-index exposure outside the US
Technology & AI tiltXLKThe AI build-out, in sector form
Defense tiltSHLDGlobal defense modernization
Quality tiltQLCThe quality factor, the factor map’s favored pond
Dividend ballastSCHDLower-volatility dividend income
Gold lineGLDDiversifier
Bitcoin lineHODLDiversifier, in measured size

Performance: Global Core is tracked as the core of the Investor Assembly — its live figures, sector and country mix and style box are on the Investor tab.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

Secular Themes

The megatrend sleeve — one fund per big-picture theme · weights as posted October 29, 2026 · it trades as the 7% thematic sleeve of the Investor Assembly.

VehicleThemeWeight
XLKTechnology & AI17.75%
PWRDTechnology + power transformation14.24%
SHLDGlobal defense modernization12.33%
PINKHealth care innovation · aging of society10.33%
SCHDLow-volatility dividends10.28%
GRIDPower-grid modernization9.50%
XLEEnergy8.14%
AIRRUS industrial renaissance8.07%
FRDMEmerging markets, freedom-oriented5.21%
GBUGMonetary debasement — gold & silver miners2.78%
—Cash1.38%
  • Its own ballast: health care innovation (PINK) also carries the aging-of-society theme, and health care defends — PINK + the low-volatility dividend line (SCHD) together are ~20.6% of the sleeve, the defensive block against the offensive themes
  • Deliberate overlap: XLK and SHLD also sit in Global Core — the double weight is the point: these are the themes the portfolio leans into hardest

Performance: the sleeve is tracked inside the Investor Assembly — live figures on the Investor tab.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite · The Timeless program

The Timeless 10s

Each sector desk’s ten most comfortable holds for the next twelve months — the Timeless program, desk by desk.

The 11 Timeless 10 Stocks Across Sectors Eleven sector portfolios of ten · tap a desk to see its ten, with entry prices

Please read: Timeless portfolios are hypothetical model portfolios tracked live from October 23, 2026. Returns are equal-weighted and price-only (dividends excluded; no fees, taxes, or slippage). They do not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

HF Favs 20

Hedge Fund Favorites · Q2 2026 edition, revised October 29, 2026 — 13F positions as of June 30, 2026 · inception October 28, 2026.

The hedge fund consensus is still a technology book — 45.6% of it — but a broader one: 25 elite books now feed it, financials carry 13.8%, and health care is on the board for the first time. Tracked live from the October 28, 2026 close.

Loading the portfolio…

Holdings Neutralized weights · entered October 28, 2026

HoldingTickerWeightFunds holdingTodaySince inception · Oct 28, 2026

Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

Sector weights Where the consensus book sits

  • Technology 45.6% — eight names; semiconductors alone (NVIDIA, TSMC, Micron, Intel, Applied Materials, Qualcomm) are 30.0%
  • Financials tripled up: Visa (8.2%) is joined by Nu Holdings (3.5%) and Capital One (2.0%) for 13.8% — and health care is on the board for the first time, Natera at 5.5%
  • Still nothing defensive: no staples, energy, utilities or real estate — the rest is communication services 17.9%, consumer discretionary 11.1% and industrials 6.1% (SPCX at its capped 5.0% plus Doncasters)

Read the flags before the weights:

  • SPCX is capped, not crowned: its raw 16.67% average weight — still the list’s largest — is a mechanical artifact of two outsized books: D1 Capital initiated SpaceX at 61.91% of its reported book, and Atreides holds 32.58%. Flagged, not a signal — the overlay caps SPCX at 5%. Doncasters (DPC), a June 2026 IPO in this book, needed no cap: its raw average weight is under 1%
  • 13F caveats: filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter-end and show long positions only — no shorts, and no record of anything the funds have bought or sold since June 30, 2026

Please read: Hedge Fund Favs is a hypothetical model portfolio — the tracked hedge funds’ 13F consensus, entered at the Wednesday, October 28, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

Dual Compounders 30

Thirty equal-weighted compounders, chosen by a process — formed at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close.

  • Thirty stocks, equal weight — one-thirtieth each — drawn from the team’s 300-name universe; no name is picked by hand
  • Every name must pass two gates: a quality gate (durable returns on capital, balance-sheet discipline) and a momentum gate (price momentum and rising analyst estimates)
  • The ranking weighs intangible value — brand strength and free-cash-flow conversion — against cheapness, so the book owns proven compounders while they are still reasonably priced
  • One change since formation: Maplebear (CART) left the governing universe, and the model’s own first reserve, Union Pacific, replaced it under the rules

Holdings Equal weight · anchor closes, October 30, 2026

HoldingTickerSectorCountryWeightAnchor close
Capital One FinancialCOFFinancialsUnited States3.33%204.85
Micron TechnologyMUInformation TechnologyUnited States3.33%884.74
SK HynixSKHYInformation TechnologySouth Korea3.33%₩1,418,000
NVIDIANVDAInformation TechnologyUnited States3.33%204.64
EOG ResourcesEOGEnergyUnited States3.33%165.54
TSMCTSMInformation TechnologyTaiwan3.33%406.13
Marathon PetroleumMPCEnergyUnited States3.33%444.73
Novo NordiskNVOHealth CareDenmark3.33%40.00
ASML HoldingASMLInformation TechnologyNetherlands3.33%1,565.90
MastercardMAFinancialsUnited States3.33%638.01
QualcommQCOMInformation TechnologyUnited States3.33%164.79
Suncor EnergySUEnergyCanada3.33%79.42
VisaVFinancialsUnited States3.33%413.59
DexComDXCMHealth CareUnited States3.33%82.29
MercadoLibreMELIConsumer DiscretionaryUruguay3.33%1,624.53
Meta PlatformsMETACommunication ServicesUnited States3.33%614.99
Arista NetworksANETInformation TechnologyUnited States3.33%168.86
Cboe Global MarketsCBOEFinancialsUnited States3.33%335.53
AirbnbABNBConsumer DiscretionaryUnited States3.33%164.39
Vertex PharmaceuticalsVRTXHealth CareUnited States3.33%558.88
AlphabetGOOGLCommunication ServicesUnited States3.33%279.84
Comfort Systems USAFIXIndustrialsUnited States3.33%1,232.66
Intuitive SurgicalISRGHealth CareUnited States3.33%432.01
AdidasADDYYConsumer DiscretionaryGermany3.33%93.73
AccentureACNInformation TechnologyUnited States3.33%258.24
FerrariRACEConsumer DiscretionaryItaly3.33%395.99
SAPSAPInformation TechnologyGermany3.33%235.02
Sea LimitedSEConsumer DiscretionarySingapore3.33%74.24
Abercrombie & FitchANFConsumer DiscretionaryUnited States3.33%164.44
Union PacificUNPIndustrialsUnited States3.33%304.00

SK Hynix is held on its Korean listing (anchor in won); the other anchors are the US lines, in dollars.

Sector & geographic weights

SectorNamesWeight
Information Technology930.0%
Consumer Discretionary620.0%
Financials413.3%
Health Care413.3%
Energy310.0%
Communication Services26.7%
Industrials26.7%
Consumer Staples00.0%
CountryNamesWeight
United States2066.7%
Germany26.7%
South Korea13.3%
Taiwan13.3%
Denmark13.3%
Netherlands13.3%
Canada13.3%
Uruguay13.3%
Italy13.3%
Singapore13.3%

Non-US weight 33.3%. Accenture is counted as a US company on the house domicile basis.

Style box Morningstar-style · house approximation, method stated on the record

ValueBlendGrowthTotal
Large13.3%13.3%40.0%66.7%
Mid10.0%0.0%20.0%30.0%
Small3.3%0.0%0.0%3.3%
Total26.7%13.3%60.0%100.0%

A large-cap book with a clear growth tilt, anchored in Large Growth — the expected fingerprint of a quality-plus-momentum process. The box is a house approximation built the Morningstar way (size and value-versus-growth scores per name), because the screener’s Morningstar field is unpopulated; the method is on the record in the model’s file.

Performance

Inception-to-date: 0.00% — the book was formed at the October 30, 2026 close and no session has traded since. The first performance figure arrives with the November month-end closes.

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

Big Bets Portfolio

A benchmark-anchored equity portfolio — formed at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close · 35 names · all eleven sectors.

  • The anchor: sector weights start from the S&P 500’s own — the portfolio owns the benchmark’s shape before it expresses any view
  • The tilts: the desk’s style-factor momentum work — which styles are being rewarded, blended across recent months — drives measured overweights and underweights by sector
  • Inside sectors: names are held in equal measure, and position sizes are capped so no single stock can dominate the book
  • The pond: the team’s 300-name universe, behind a quality floor — every name must clear the desk’s quality standards before a tilt can own it
  • All eleven sectors, always: roughly 35 names; no sector is ever eliminated outright
  • Formations: the book is rebuilt on a regular formation cycle. The first formation runs its tilts at half strength by design; full tilts apply from the next formation

Holdings Formation of October 30, 2026 · weights at formation

HoldingTickerSectorWeightEntry · Oct 30, 2026
Cheniere EnergyLNGEnergy2.65%$330.32
Marathon PetroleumMPCEnergy2.65%$444.73
ChevronCVXEnergy2.65%$235.52
EcolabECLMaterials2.83%$302.98
MicrosoftMSFTInformation Technology4.00%$521.91
CrowdStrikeCRWDInformation Technology4.00%$250.43
IBMIBMInformation Technology4.00%$257.81
AppleAAPLInformation Technology4.00%$344.63
WorkdayWDAYInformation Technology4.00%$197.82
Micron TechnologyMUInformation Technology4.00%$884.74
SalesforceCRMInformation Technology4.00%$229.17
Dell TechnologiesDELLInformation Technology4.00%$424.30
AccentureACNInformation Technology4.00%$258.24
Darden RestaurantsDRIConsumer Discretionary3.72%$220.17
Best BuyBBYConsumer Discretionary3.72%$95.65
ProgressivePGRFinancials2.53%$231.28
VisaVFinancials2.53%$413.59
MastercardMAFinancials2.53%$638.01
NasdaqNDAQFinancials2.53%$106.23
Marsh & McLennanMRSHFinancials2.53%$200.62
MerckMRKHealth Care1.99%$149.52
Johnson & JohnsonJNJHealth Care1.99%$273.20
DanaherDHRHealth Care1.99%$232.23
Eli LillyLLYHealth Care1.99%$1,417.54
Thermo Fisher ScientificTMOHealth Care1.99%$697.00
AbbVieABBVHealth Care1.99%$294.89
AmgenAMGNHealth Care1.99%$466.01
Procter & GamblePGConsumer Staples1.79%$161.57
Coca-ColaKOConsumer Staples1.79%$94.08
Philip Morris InternationalPMConsumer Staples1.79%$208.79
Keurig Dr PepperKDPConsumer Staples1.79%$35.84
Walt DisneyDISCommunication Services4.00%$110.94
CintasCTASIndustrials4.00%$219.82
Duke EnergyDUKUtilities2.10%$127.39
American TowerAMTReal Estate1.95%$187.78

Eleven names sit at the 4.00% position cap. Invested 99.99% at formation; the residual is cash. Prices are the October 30, 2026 closes.

Sector weights At formation · geography: United States 100%

SectorWeight
Information Technology36.00%
Health Care13.93%
Financials12.63%
Energy7.96%
Consumer Discretionary7.43%
Consumer Staples7.16%
Communication Services4.00%
Industrials4.00%
Materials2.83%
Utilities2.10%
Real Estate1.95%

Performance

Since inception · Oct 30, 2026: +0.00% — the book was formed at that close; tracking begins with the Monday, November 2, 2026 close.

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite · Rules-based

Madness of Crowds

Two sleeves · earnings momentum · inception October 30, 2026 · benchmark SPMO.

The crowd is the signal: this model owns the stocks whose earnings reports the market just cheered — and, at half size, the ones set up to be cheered next.

Performance: Entered at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close — figures publish from the first completed close.

Holdings Entered October 30, 2026 · Confirmed names count double, Loaded single

HoldingTickerSleeveWeight
Thermo Fisher ScientificTMOConfirmed20%
CenterPoint EnergyCNPConfirmed20%
Canadian Natural ResourcesCNQLoaded10%
e.l.f. BeautyELFLoaded10%
SonySONYLoaded10%
Suncor EnergySULoaded10%
EOG ResourcesEOGLoaded10%
Novo NordiskNVOLoaded10%

Sector weights: Energy 30% · Health Care 30% · Utilities 20% · Communication Services 10% · Consumer Staples 10%. No sector may exceed 50% of the book. The Confirmed sleeve is deliberately thin: of the 68 stocks that beat estimates and raised guidance this season, only 2 cleared every gate — the rules would rather hold 2 names at full size than dilute the signal.

The full live presentation — selection rules in plain language, screener ranks, and the nightly-refreshed record — lives on the Models tab.

Please read: Madness of Crowds is a hypothetical model portfolio — rules-based, entered at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite

Fast Twitch

Pete’s tactical trading book — a $1M hypothetical portfolio, run on autopilot · the live book runs on the Trading tab.

Please read: Fast Twitch is a hypothetical model trading portfolio, tracked in the open from October 25, 2026. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Status As of the October 30, 2026 close — the live book, updated every session, is on the Trading tab

  • Live — 14 open trades in the $1M hypothetical portfolio, opened Monday, October 26, 2026 and run end to end by Pete on the rules
  • Performance: book value $1,002,257.66 (+0.23%) · cash $89,390.81 · open positions at cost $904,769.56, worth $912,866.85 · unrealized +$8,097.29 · closed trades 2, realized −$5,839.63 (0 wins / 2 losses)
  • Best open trade: CBRE, +4.86% (+$8,097.29). Worst closed: NFLX, −2.99% (−$4,981.74)
  • The October 30 run — the first on the full 300 and the first on autopilot — booked 13 entries: BAC on the capitulation trigger, and all 12 momentum-pullback qualifiers. Nothing was cash-blocked; no exit fired
  • Basket A — Capitulation: a quality name washed out to a textbook oversold turn — a fresh low where momentum stops confirming the decline
  • Basket B — Momentum Pullback: a quality uptrend paused at its stabilizer band — bought on strength’s pause, not on collapse
  • Exits are automatic: a hard stop, quick-gain harvests and a maximum hold are written into every trade before it opens; when a rule fires, the trade books

Portfolios · Satellite Suite · Rules-based rotation

Momentum ETF 4

The 4-ETF momentum model · inception October 30, 2026 · next formation November 30, 2026.

The current portfolio Segment 1 · entered at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close · next formation Monday, November 30, 2026

ETFFundFactor / familyWeightEntry · Oct 30, 2026Momentum score
XLEEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundEnergy · sector25%$70.02100.0
XLVHealth Care Select Sector SPDR FundHealth Care · defensive sector25%$184.8789.6
SCHDSchwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETFHigh Dividend · defensive income25%$35.7888.1
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR FundTechnology · sector25%$179.5182.2

Stretched: XLE closed +20.4% above its 200-day average at formation (+8.1% above its 50-day) — the seat is owned normally, but the flag puts it on the weekly exit watch by rule: a weekly close below its 25-day average sells it.

First reserves: DGRO — Dividend Growth (70.7) is first in line at any seat change, then IVE — Value (64.8), XLP — Consumer Staples (63.0) and USMV — Low Volatility (62.6).

Performance live track record · inception Friday, October 30, 2026 · Segment 1 open

Performance: since inception · Oct 30, 2026: +0.00% as of October 30, 2026 close (index 100.00, base 100 at inception) — SPY +0.00% over the same window.

Segment 1 (open): +0.00% since the October 30, 2026 formation close · locks at the next formation, November 30, 2026.

Tracking begins with the Monday, November 2, 2026 close — the first close after inception.

SegmentWindowModelSPYStatus
Segment 1October 30, 2026 → November 30, 2026+0.00%+0.00%Open

How the record is kept:

  • Each segment runs from one formation close to the next; when a segment ends, its return is locked and multiplied into the since-inception line — one continuous chain, monthly resets and weekly swaps included
  • Prices are Yahoo Finance adjusted closes — dividends reinvested — so the figures are total returns; they reflect no commissions, fees or taxes

The process was research-tested on 2026 market data before launch; that research is hypothetical and is not part of this track record, which starts at inception.

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. For informational purposes only — not financial advice.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite · Fixed income

Hybrid Income

Hybrid Income Opportunities · Eric’s model of record · posted October 29, 2026 · entered October 29, 2026 close · blended SEC yield ~5.3% · bond duration ~3.1 yrs.

Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026 — figures publish from the first completed close.

SleevePositionVehicleWeight
Flexible multi-sector coreEaton Vance Income OpportunitiesXAGG25.01%
TCW Flexible IncomeFLXR23.97%
iShares Flexible Income ActiveBINC17.93%
AAA securitized — floating rateEldridge AAA CLOCLOX10.97%
Emerging-market debtBondBloxx J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets 1–10 YearXEMD4.97%
Low-vol dividend equitiesSchwab U.S. Dividend EquitySCHD8.15%
Franklin International Low Volatility High DividendLVHI8.02%
CashU.S. dollar account—0.97%
  • Flexible and dynamic: it ranges across the entire fixed-income spectrum to choose where on the curve to sit, and whether the risk it takes is credit risk or interest-rate risk
  • Goldilocks regimes: tilt toward credit — high yield and convertible bonds included; economic slowdowns: much more defensive — less credit, much more interest-rate risk (duration)
  • Up to 25% in low-volatility dividend-paying ETFs for the regimes hostile to bonds — rising interest rates and inflation; the sleeve holds 16.17% today (SCHD + LVHI)
  • The objective: high absolute yield plus good total return. Five fixed-income ETFs plus the two dividend-equity vehicles and cash: securities 99.03%, cash 0.97%

Bill’s full board for this model — scores, the yield board and the complete model notes — lives on the Fixed Income tab.

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Portfolios · Satellite Suite · Fixed income

Safety & Certainty

Eric’s model of record · posted October 29, 2026 · entered October 29, 2026 close · blended SEC yield ~5.6% · duration ~3.4 yrs.

Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026 — figures publish from the first completed close.

SleevePositionVehicleWeight
Ladder core — term corporatesiShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term CorporateIBDT17.53%
iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term CorporateIBDV23.18%
iShares iBonds Dec 2034 Term CorporateIBDZ17.89%
Active multi-sectorEaton Vance Income OpportunitiesXAGG23.27%
AAA securitized — floating rateJanus Henderson AAA CLOJAAA9.49%
Emerging-market debtBondBloxx J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets 1–10 YearXEMD8.04%
CashU.S. dollar account—0.61%
  • The core is a ladder built for certainty: defined-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds that mature at par — holders get paid regardless of the fixed-income volatility in between, and each rung is held to its December maturity (2028 · 2030 · 2034)
  • Active exposures sit around the core — tilting toward more credit or more interest-rate exposure as conditions warrant — but the core itself is certainty and safety
  • This is the lower-volatility, lower-beta fixed-income option, with slightly less yield than Hybrid Income
  • Ladder core 58.60% (the three iBonds Dec term corporate ETFs) · active satellites 40.79% (XAGG + JAAA + XEMD) · securities 99.39%, cash 0.61%

Bill’s full board for this model — scores, the yield board and the complete model notes — lives on the Fixed Income tab.

Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

Investor · Your dashboard · October 30, 2026

Your Portfolio on One Page (Hypothetical Example)

The Investor Assembly — built from the Flagship and Satellite Suites, not a third suite

Everything about your portfolio — what you own, what it did today, where it stands, and what the team is watching next — on one page, refreshed with the market.

Current Portfolio Design

The components, the asset mix, and what every piece is there for. Timeless by design — re-recorded only when the portfolio’s components change.

The portfolio x-ray — press play.

Monthly Performance

  • The goal and the tilts — what this portfolio is built to do, and where each sleeve is positioned for the regime
  • Construction — the funds in the blend, and the job each one does
  • Winners and detractors — the positions and sleeves that helped, and the ones that hurt, with performance

October 2026 — monthly performance summary — press play.

The review a perfect advisor would give every client, every month — short and numbers-first, so nothing about your money is ever a surprise.

Current Portfolio Core + thematic satellites · $1M hypothetical · 70% equities / 30% fixed income · restructured October 29, 2026

Loading your portfolio…

  • The mix is the return. Decades of evidence say the asset mix — not any single pick — is what ties to long-term returns, so the mix is set first: 70% equities / 30% fixed income, restructured October 29, 2026 (the launch mix was 100% equity for one day; its record does not carry)
  • Ballast and sizzle. Global Core Equity (42% of the portfolio) is the ballast — broad, quality-tilted, regime-directed. Around it, three equity satellites supply the sizzle: Secular Themes (7%), the Timeless 10 (10.5%) and Dividend Equity Income (10.5%)
  • A bond barbell, not a bond blob. Safety & Certainty (10%) sits at the paid-at-par end; Hybrid Income Opportunities (20%) at the flexible-yield end — two different tools for one asset class, so the 30% does real work in either rate regime. XLK and SHLD are deliberately double-weighted — they sit in both Global Core and Secular Themes; that is a stated thematic tilt, not an accident

Global Core Equity — 42% of the portfolio · 60% of equities

  • LOGO is the engine — active and regime-directed. The largest line in the core carries the global consumption themes — consumer spending, business innovation spending and government spending — through the brands that lead them; fully cyclical and growth-oriented when the regime pays for risk, positioned very defensively when it does not
  • Broad exposure, deliberately tilted: S&P 500 (VOO), Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) and fundamental international developed markets (FNDF), with tilts to technology and AI (XLK), defense modernization (SHLD) and the quality factor (QLC) — the style factor work says quality is the smart pond
  • Ballast and diversifiers, dynamic: quality, lower-volatility dividends (SCHD), a gold line (GLD) and a bitcoin line (HODL); the core’s allocations move when the regime warrants — more static than LOGO, never frozen

Secular Themes — 7% of the portfolio · 10% of equities

  • The megatrend satellite — one ETF per big-picture theme: technology & AI (XLK), technology + power transformation (PWRD), defense modernization (SHLD), power-grid modernization (GRID), energy (XLE), the US industrial renaissance (AIRR), freedom-oriented emerging markets (FRDM — Taiwan and South Korea carry its AI supply chain) and monetary debasement (GBUG, active gold & silver miners)
  • Its own ballast: health care innovation (PINK) also carries the aging-of-society theme, and health care defends — PINK + the low-volatility dividend line (SCHD) together are ~20.6% of the sleeve, the defensive block against the offensive themes
  • Deliberate overlap: XLK and SHLD also sit in Global Core — the double weight is the point: these are the themes the portfolio leans into hardest

Timeless 10 — 10.5% of the portfolio · 15% of equities

  • Blue-chip mega brands, technology-oriented, across the important consumption industries
  • The longest-duration sleeve — it changes the least
  • Dynamic at the margin: in a defensive regime it would likely trim technology and add consumer staples and health care

Dividend Equity Income — 10.5% of the portfolio · 15% of equities

  • A global high-dividend portfolio that does not chase yield — quality first, because the style factor map says so
  • Sector look-through picks the vehicles — chosen for their weight in the sectors the team favors: US high dividend (HDV, VYM), energy infrastructure income (MLPX), international low-volatility high dividend (LVHI), Nasdaq-100 premium income (GPIQ), and a small Treasury park (SHY)
  • Dynamic: the sleeve follows the sectors the team favors — and can get very defensive if the regime says so

Safety & Certainty — 10% of the portfolio · the ladder end of the barbell

  • The core is a ladder that pays at par: iBonds Dec term corporate ETFs (2028 · 2030 · 2034) are 58.6% of this sleeve — hold each rung to its date and the principal comes back at par, whatever fixed income does in between
  • Active satellites sit around the core — an active multi-sector fund (XAGG), AAA floating-rate CLOs (JAAA) and emerging-market debt (XEMD) — tilting credit against interest-rate exposure as the regime turns
  • The certainty end by design: lower volatility, lower beta, slightly less yield than Hybrid — stability is the job

Hybrid Income Opportunities — 20% of the portfolio · the engine end of the barbell

  • A flexible yield engine: full-spectrum fixed income that chooses its curve position and its credit-vs-duration risk by regime — credit, including high yield and converts, when the regime pays for it; defensive duration when it does not
  • Five bond funds plus a low-volatility dividend-equity valve (SCHD + LVHI, 16.2% of the sleeve, capped at 25%) for rate and inflation regimes that are hostile to bonds — the objective is high absolute yield plus total return
  • The opposite tool from Certainty, on purpose: more yield, more flexibility, likely more turnover

This is a dynamic portfolio, not a static allocation. The allocations are regime-directed and will change over time according to the business cycle — that is the benefit of having a dynamic core. The fixed-income models flex with the regime too: Certainty’s satellites tilt around the ladder, and Hybrid moves along the curve and across credit quality.

HoldingTickerWeightTodaySince inception · Oct 29, 2026

Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

Please read: Current Portfolio is a hypothetical model portfolio — the example dashboard an investor on this program sees. It is a $1M combination of six sleeves — Global Core Equity (42%), Dividend Equity Income (10.5%), a Timeless 10 (10.5%), Secular Themes (7%), Safety & Certainty (10%) and Hybrid Income Opportunities (20%) — 70% equities, 30% fixed income. It launched Wednesday, October 28, 2026 as a 100% equity mix and was restructured to this 70/30 mix at the Thursday, October 29, 2026 close; tracking runs from the restructure and the launch mix’s one-day record does not carry. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

What you own, by pond Sector and country mix of the equity side (70% of the portfolio) — look-through estimate from fund disclosures

Style box — where this portfolio sits, Morningstar-style

What you own, in fixed income The 30% bond bucket — a barbell, broken out

The read: the bond bucket blends to a ~5.4% SEC yield at ~2.9 years of duration — a paid-at-par ladder at one end, a flexible yield engine at the other, and almost no overlap in how the two ends make their money.

SleeveShare of portfolioSEC yieldDurationCredit character
Safety & Certainty10%~5.6%~3.4 yrsInvestment-grade ladder core (58.6% of the sleeve) + AAA CLOs + active multi-sector + EM debt satellites
Hybrid Income Opportunities20%~5.29%~2.6 yrs (bond sleeve ~3.15)Full-spectrum credit — ~20% high yield and ~12% EM debt inside the model, plus a 16.2% low-vol dividend-equity valve
The 30% bucket30%~5.4%~2.9 yrs~37% investment-grade corporates · ~11% Treasury/agency · ~11% AAA securitized · ~13% high yield · ~11% EM debt · ~11% dividend equities · ~8% active multi-sector (approximate)
  • At the whole-portfolio level the bucket contributes ~1.6 points of yield and ~0.9 years of duration — real income ballast that lets the 70% equity side stay invested through the cycle
  • Why two models: Certainty is paid at par on a date — its return is known if you hold; Hybrid is managed — its return is earned by moving. Opposite tools for one asset class, so the bucket works in either rate regime
  • Fund SEC yields as published Oct 2026 (iShares, Eaton Vance, TCW, BlackRock, BondBloxx, Janus Henderson); Certainty’s duration is modeled from fund fact sheets — the full per-model boards live on the Fixed Income tab

The view ahead Out the front windshield, not the rearview mirror

    Where returns are coming from Which ponds are producing — and which are not

    The full factor map lives under Style Factors.

    Automated Portfolio Analytics (Coming Soon)

    Caddie — drag, drop, done.

    Brands · The tracked brand portfolio · weights as of October 30, 2026 · prices as of October 30, 2026

    The brand portfolio is Yellow in the middle: 19 Green · 21 Yellow · 5 Red across 45 names.

    Trend: 9 Bull · 27 Neutral · 9 Bear. Each name is graded on its trend and its most recent earnings report — nothing else enters the score.

    • How the score works. Points = trend legs up minus down (long-term: price vs the 10-month average · intermediate: 50-day vs 150-day · short-term: price vs the 25-day average) plus earnings lines beat minus missed on the most recent report (revenue · EPS · guidance). Green at +3 or better · Yellow from −2 to +2 · Red at −3 or worse. The 3-month return is shown, not scored.
    • Weights are checked every morning. The weights below are as of October 30, 2026 and sum to 99.99% across 47 lines; any addition, removal or material weight change is flagged the day it appears.
    • Earnings coverage. 21 of 45 names carry a full three-line grade from their most recent report; the rest are scored on the lines that can be graded reliably (marked †) — an ungraded line never counts for or against a name.
    CompanyWeight3M returnLTITSTTrendRevenueEPSGuidanceScore
    Eli Lilly & Co
    LLY · reported October 29, 2026    		4.46%+22.9%▲▲▲BullBeatBeatBeatGreen +6
    Amazon.com Inc
    AMZN · reported October 29, 2026    		4.28%+2.1%▼▲▼NeutralMeetMissBeatYellow -1
    Apple Inc
    AAPL · reported July 30, 2026    		3.68%+3.4%▲▲▲BullMeetMeetMeetGreen +3
    Axon Enterprise Inc
    AXON · reported August 5, 2026    		3.37%-18.6%▼▼▲NeutralBeatBeatBeatYellow +2
    Alphabet Inc
    GOOGL · reported October 28, 2026    		3.18%-16.1%▼▼▼BearMeet—MeetRed -3†
    Monster Beverage Corp
    MNST · reported August 6, 2026    		3.09%-3.0%▲▲▲BullBeatBeat—Green +5†
    Spotify Technology SA
    SPOT · reported October 22, 2026    		3.03%+13.6%▲▲▲Bull——BeatGreen +4†
    Amphenol Corp
    APH · reported October 28, 2026    		3.02%-0.6%▲▲▼Neutral—BeatBeatGreen +3†
    Eaton Corp PLC
    ETN · reported July 31, 2026    		2.89%-4.1%▼▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatYellow +2
    NVIDIA Corp
    NVDA · reported August 26, 2026    		2.89%+5.0%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    Palantir Technologies Inc
    PLTR · reported August 3, 2026    		2.87%+50.6%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    Microsoft Corp
    MSFT · reported October 28, 2026    		2.84%+15.9%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    Meta Platforms Inc
    META · reported October 21, 2026    		2.83%+14.2%▼▲▼Neutral—BeatBeatYellow +1†
    MercadoLibre Inc
    MELI · reported August 6, 2026    		2.75%-13.9%▼▲▼NeutralBeatBeat—Yellow +1†
    Netflix Inc
    NFLX · reported October 20, 2026    		2.68%-15.2%▼▼▼Bear—BeatMissRed -3†
    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd
    TSM · reported October 15, 2026    		2.60%+1.0%▲▲▼Neutral——BeatYellow +2†
    Cheniere Energy Inc
    LNG · reported October 29, 2026    		2.58%+28.3%▲▲▲Bull—MissBeatGreen +3†
    Palo Alto Networks Inc
    PANW · reported September 1, 2026    		2.53%+12.3%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    GE AEROSPACE
    GE · reported October 20, 2026    		2.21%-14.9%▼▼▼Bear——BeatYellow -2†
    Uber Technologies Inc
    UBER · reported August 5, 2026    		2.11%-7.3%▼▼▼BearMeetMeetMeetRed -3
    Costco Wholesale Corp
    COST · reported September 24, 2026    		2.10%+6.1%▲▼▲NeutralMeetMeet—Yellow +1†
    Blackstone Inc
    BX · reported October 22, 2026    		2.04%-6.5%▼▼▲Neutral———Yellow -1†
    Broadcom Inc
    AVGO · reported September 2, 2026    		1.95%-15.8%▼▼▼BearMeetBeatBeatYellow -1
    L3Harris Technologies Inc
    LHX · reported October 29, 2026    		1.95%+2.6%▼▼▲Neutral——BeatYellow +0†
    HEICO Corp
    HEI · reported August 25, 2026    		1.94%-9.3%▲▼▲NeutralBeatBeatMeetGreen +3
    Lockheed Martin Corp
    LMT · reported October 22, 2026    		1.88%+11.6%▲▼▲Neutral—BeatBeatGreen +3†
    TransDigm Group Inc
    TDG · reported August 4, 2026    		1.79%-8.2%▼▼▲NeutralBeatBeatBeatYellow +2
    Airbnb Inc
    ABNB · reported August 6, 2026    		1.73%+8.1%▲▲▼NeutralMeetBeatBeatGreen +3
    Apollo Global Management Inc
    APO · reported August 4, 2026    		1.66%-3.3%▼▼▲NeutralMissMissMeetRed -3
    Cloudflare Inc
    NET · reported August 6, 2026    		1.61%-0.9%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    Shopify Inc
    SHOP · reported August 5, 2026    		1.61%+28.7%▲▲▼NeutralBeatBeatBeatGreen +4
    Northrop Grumman Corp
    NOC · reported October 20, 2026    		1.59%+4.7%▼▼▲Neutral—BeatBeatYellow +1†
    Siemens Energy AG
    SMERY · reported August 5, 2026    		1.57%-16.4%▼▼▼BearBeat—MeetYellow -2†
    Visa Inc
    V · reported October 27, 2026    		1.57%+13.1%▲▲▲Bull——MeetGreen +3†
    ServiceNow Inc
    NOW · reported October 28, 2026    		1.56%-4.5%▼▲▼Neutral—MeetBeatYellow +0†
    Quanta Services Inc
    PWR · reported October 29, 2026    		1.51%-5.6%▲▼▼Neutral—BeatBeatYellow +1†
    UnitedHealth Group Inc
    UNH · reported October 13, 2026    		1.50%-2.8%▲▲▲Bull—BeatBeatGreen +5†
    Liberty Media Corp
    FWONK · reported August 6, 2026    		1.49%-7.5%▲▲▲BullMissMiss—Yellow +1†
    TKO Group Holdings Inc
    TKO · reported August 3, 2026    		1.46%-1.3%▼▼▲NeutralMeetMissBeatYellow -1
    BAE Systems PLC
    BAESY · reported July 30, 2026    		1.44%-1.0%▲▼▲NeutralMeetBeatBeatGreen +3
    GE Vernova Inc
    GEV · reported October 28, 2026    		1.44%-12.6%▼▼▼Bear——BeatYellow -2†
    AppLovin Corp
    APP · reported August 5, 2026    		1.33%-43.4%▼▼▼BearMissMeetMeetRed -4
    ASML Holding NV
    ASML · reported October 14, 2026    		1.32%-5.1%▲▲▼Neutral——BeatYellow +2†
    Live Nation Entertainment Inc
    LYV · reported July 30, 2026    		1.02%-3.1%▲▲▲BullBeatBeatMeetGreen +5
    Sphere Entertainment Co
    SPHR · reported July 30, 2026    		1.02%-26.4%▼▼▼BearBeatBeat—Yellow -1†
    First American Government Obligations
    FGXXX    		+0.06%—————————
    Cash & Other
    Cash&Other    		-0.04%—————————

    † Scored on the earnings lines available — one or more lines of the most recent report could not be graded reliably and are shown as —. Cash and money-market lines carry weight only. Prices and returns from Yahoo Finance daily closes; the 3-month return includes dividends where Yahoo reports them. Trend legs use the house method: long-term vs the 10-month average of month-end closes, intermediate 50-day vs 150-day, short-term vs the 25-day average.

    Models · Satellite Suite · Rules-based portfolios

    Models

    The rules-based corner of the Satellite Suite — portfolios built by formula, not opinion. The Flagship Suite lives on the Portfolios tab: the Optimal Portfolio and the Timeless 25, the Blue Chip Brands flagship.

    Two suites, one shelf

    Current prices and since-entry returns below are as of October 30, 2026 close (price-only, local currency).

    Satellite Suite · Rules-based

    Madness of Crowds Two sleeves · earnings momentum · inception October 30, 2026 · benchmark SPMO

    The crowd is the signal: this model owns the stocks whose earnings reports the market just cheered — and, at half size, the ones set up to be cheered next.

    • The Confirmed sleeve is deliberately thin: of the 68 stocks that beat estimates and raised guidance this season, only 2 cleared every gate — Thermo Fisher and CenterPoint. The rules would rather hold 2 names at full size than dilute the signal
    • Exxon Mobil and Chevron both beat estimates on October 30 but neither raised guidance — anything less than beat plus raise plus a rising stock is out, so both left the Loaded sleeve at the first weekly review and the book re-weighted to 8 names. What remains still leans into energy: 3 of the 6 Loaded names, 30.0% of the portfolio, inside the 50% sector cap
    • The run-up guard — skip stocks that already sprinted into their report — tripped on nobody in this book. Honest note: it would not have caught ServiceNow either; it ran +7.3% in the 10 sessions before its print, under the 15% trip line

    Performance: Entered at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close — since-inception and today figures publish from the first completed close.

    Holdings Entered October 30, 2026 · ranks: screener, October 23, 2026

    HoldingTickerSleeveWeightRevisions %ileMomentum %ileReportTodaySince inception · Oct 30, 2026

    Revisions %ile and Momentum %ile are ranks inside the 300-name screener universe (Dynamic Brand Screener, October 23, 2026 snapshot): 0.80 or better is the top fifth — the entry gate for both sleeves. CenterPoint carries no screener rank: it is one of ten newer universe names with no screener data, and it qualified on its report (beat, guidance raised, stock up on the news) and price action alone — never scored as zero. Sony and Novo Nordisk are tracked on their US-listed lines. Price returns only — dividends are not included. Figures refresh with the market (15-minute delayed intraday; official at the close).

    Sector weights Where the crowd book sits

    Please read: Madness of Crowds is a hypothetical model portfolio — rules-based, entered at the Friday, October 30, 2026 close and tracked in the open from there. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

    Fixed Income · Bill’s desk

    Satellite Suite · The income models

    Own the yield. Respect the credit.

    Fixed Income Opportunity Bill’s score — yield compensation against risk · re-underwritten October 31, 2026 on October 30 data — held

    59 / 100 · Neutral — at the top of the band. This market’s offer is two offers stapled together: one generous, one insulting.

    Risk-free yield
    		82The risk-free rate pays you to wait — bills and the belly yield 4.2 to 5.0% with no credit risk.
    Securitized & floating carry
    		74Agency mortgages and AAA CLOs are the best risk-adjusted carry on the board.
    Inflation protection
    		64Breakevens still price a world where the oil shock fades — protection is not expensive.
    Duration value
    		52Fairly paid in the belly, hostage-priced at the long end — buyable in stages, not in lunges.
    Credit compensation
    		28High yield at a 3.40% spread is a benign-world price for a Deflation world. The insulting half of the offer.

    The yield board U.S. Treasury yields and credit spreads · October 30, 2026 close

    InstrumentYield / spreadDesk note
    Fed funds target3.75–4.00%Held at the October 28 meeting. December is the next trigger.
    3-month bill4.16%Cash is a position, not an accident.
    2-year Treasury4.56%Prices a Fed that is not done.
    Belly (3–10 yr)4.72–4.80%The perch: nearly the 10-year’s yield at half the term-premium exposure.
    10-year Treasury4.93%Tripwires both ways: 5.40% extends duration, 4.40% harvests it.
    30-year Treasury5.31%Term premium ~1.1 — the long end is paid, but the marginal buyer is price-sensitive.
    Curve (2s10s)+37 bpSteepening led by the long end — a supply and term-premium story, not a growth story.
    High yield spread (OAS)3.26%Cycle-stingy. No broad high yield at this price — in the Hybrid book, credit comes through the flexible multi-sector funds and the emerging-market sleeve, not a dedicated high-yield fund.

    Yields: Yahoo Finance Treasury yield indexes with the 2- and 7-year points from the U.S. Treasury daily par curve, October 30, 2026 close. High yield spread: 3.26%, October 29, 2026 (FRED). ICE BofA OAS (FRED): investment-grade 0.89% (October 29, 2026), BBB 1.10% (October 29, 2026). This board refreshes with the site’s market updates.

    How to read this:

    • Every spread is measured over US Treasury bonds of similar maturity — the federal government’s risk-free rate
    • A spread of 1.00% means those corporate bonds pay one percentage point more than Treasuries — investors demand extra yield for default risk
    • AAA is the highest credit rating (the safest borrowers, the thinnest spread)
    • BBB is the lowest investment-grade rating (the widest spread before ‘high yield’)

    Hybrid Income Opportunities Eric’s model of record · posted October 29, 2026 · entered October 29, 2026 close · blended SEC yield ~5.3% · bond duration ~3.1 yrs

    Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026: -0.01% as of October 30, 2026 close — price-only; bond funds pay income the price return does not capture.

    SleevePositionVehicleWeight
    Flexible multi-sector coreEaton Vance Income OpportunitiesXAGG25.01%
    TCW Flexible IncomeFLXR23.97%
    iShares Flexible Income ActiveBINC17.93%
    AAA securitized — floating rateEldridge AAA CLOCLOX10.97%
    Emerging-market debtBondBloxx J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets 1–10 YearXEMD4.97%
    Low-vol dividend equitiesSchwab U.S. Dividend EquitySCHD8.15%
    Franklin International Low Volatility High DividendLVHI8.02%
    CashU.S. dollar account—0.97%

    Eric’s model of record (posted October 29, 2026) — it replaces the desk’s October 27 framework build, and tracking restarts at the October 29, 2026 close:

    • Flexible and dynamic: it ranges across the entire fixed-income spectrum to choose where on the curve to sit, and whether the risk it takes is credit risk or interest-rate risk
    • Goldilocks regimes: tilt toward credit — high yield and convertible bonds included; economic slowdowns: much more defensive — less credit, much more interest-rate risk (duration)
    • Up to 25% in low-volatility dividend-paying ETFs for the regimes hostile to bonds — rising interest rates and inflation — when equities tend to do much better than fixed income; the sleeve holds 16.17% today (SCHD + LVHI)
    • The objective: high absolute yield plus good total return — from being in the right part of fixed income, and adding equities up to 25% when it is prudent
    • Five fixed-income ETFs — the framework cap — plus the two dividend-equity vehicles and cash: securities 99.03%, cash 0.97%

    The model’s numbers — a desk-modeled blend of the funds’ published figures (each fund’s as-of date differs): blended 30-day SEC yield ~5.3% · bond duration ~3.1 yrs (~2.6 yrs across the whole model — the dividend equities carry no bond duration and the AAA CLO sleeve floats). Credit mix, % of the model: Treasury & agency-backed ~17 · AAA securitized ~12 · other investment grade ~26 · high yield ~20 · emerging-market debt ~12 · dividend equities ~16 · cash & other ~−2 net (the flexible funds run small negative cash from unsettled trades and margin; the model’s own cash is +0.97%).

    Fund inputs: Eaton Vance fact sheet, September 30, 2026 — XAGG SEC yield 6.47%, duration 3.94 yrs · TCW fact sheet, August 31, 2026 — FLXR 5.52%, 3.54 yrs · BlackRock, September–October 2026 reporting — BINC SEC yield ~5.65%, duration ~3.23 yrs, ~34% below investment grade · BondBloxx, October 28, 2026 — XEMD SEC yield 6.06%, spread duration 3.93 yrs · CLOX SEC yield 4.82% (October 2026) — Eldridge publishes no effective duration for CLOX; its floating-rate AAA CLOs are modeled at ~0 rate duration, stated here rather than estimated silently · SCHD 3.18% and LVHI 3.13% SEC yields (October 2026).

    Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

    Safety & Certainty Eric’s model of record · posted October 29, 2026 · entered October 29, 2026 close · blended SEC yield ~5.6% · duration ~3.4 yrs

    Performance: since inception · Oct 29, 2026: -0.08% as of October 30, 2026 close — price-only; bond funds pay income the price return does not capture.

    SleevePositionVehicleWeight
    Ladder core — term corporatesiShares iBonds Dec 2028 Term CorporateIBDT17.53%
    iShares iBonds Dec 2030 Term CorporateIBDV23.18%
    iShares iBonds Dec 2034 Term CorporateIBDZ17.89%
    Active multi-sectorEaton Vance Income OpportunitiesXAGG23.27%
    AAA securitized — floating rateJanus Henderson AAA CLOJAAA9.49%
    Emerging-market debtBondBloxx J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets 1–10 YearXEMD8.04%
    CashU.S. dollar account—0.61%

    Eric’s model of record (posted October 29, 2026) — it replaces the desk’s October 27 ladder build, and tracking starts at the October 29, 2026 close:

    • The core is a ladder built for certainty: defined-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds that mature at par — holders get paid regardless of the fixed-income volatility in between, and each rung is held to its December maturity (2028 · 2030 · 2034)
    • Active exposures sit around the core — tilting toward more credit or more interest-rate exposure as conditions warrant — but the core itself is certainty and safety
    • This is the lower-volatility, lower-beta fixed-income option, with slightly less yield than Hybrid Income
    • The two models are deliberately different tools for one asset class: this one is a paid-at-par ladder core and stability; Hybrid Income is higher yield, more flexibility and likely more turnover, with low-volatility dividend equities that can shift the book toward equity-linked fixed income for total return — together they cover whatever fixed-income environment arrives
    • Ladder core 58.60% (the three iBonds Dec term corporate ETFs) · active satellites 40.79% (XAGG + JAAA + XEMD) · securities 99.39%, cash 0.61%

    The model’s numbers — a desk-modeled blend of the funds’ published figures (each fund’s as-of date differs): blended 30-day SEC yield ~5.6% · duration ~3.4 yrs across the model (the ladder core itself ~3.6 yrs; the AAA CLO sleeve floats, at 0.23 yrs). Credit mix, % of the model: investment-grade corporate ladder 58.60 · active multi-sector 23.27 · AAA securitized 9.49 · emerging-market debt 8.04 · cash 0.61. Inside the ladder (iShares, September 30, 2026): BBB ~55 · A ~36 · AA ~8 · AAA ~0.5 — investment grade throughout.

    Fund inputs: iShares fact sheets, September 30, 2026 — IBDT SEC yield 5.00%, effective duration 1.56 yrs · IBDV 5.41%, 3.29 yrs · IBDZ 5.87%, 6.03 yrs · Eaton Vance fact sheet, September 30, 2026 — XAGG SEC yield 6.47%, duration 3.94 yrs · Janus Henderson — JAAA SEC yield 4.52% (September 30, 2026), effective duration 0.23 yrs (October 27, 2026) · BondBloxx, October 28, 2026 — XEMD SEC yield 6.06%, spread duration 3.93 yrs (XEMD enters the duration blend on its published spread duration).

    Hypothetical model portfolio; it does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results.

    The AI credit watch Bill’s board — what the smart market says about the AI build-out · sweep of October 25, 2026

    NameThe credit tapeRead
    CoreWeave5-yr CDS ~1,090 bp · bonds 75–83¢ at 15–16.5%The equity story says sub-one-year paybacks; the bond market charges distressed prices. Both cannot be right.
    OracleCDS ~322 bp, +178 bp this yearDowngraded to BBB− in July. The AI trade’s weakest investment-grade link.
    Meta5-yr CDS at a record 114.5 bp (Oct 22)A fortress balance sheet crossing 100 bp is a regime signal, not a Meta problem.
    NVIDIACDS 101–126 bp at recordsEven the tollbooth pays more for protection than it ever has.
    The systemCDX IG ~60–62 bp · HY OAS 3.40% · fortress cash above $500BStress is name-specific, not systemic — yet. Bill’s flip rule: any three of his seven warning signs, or the fortress names cracking together.

    Single-name CDS levels are largely paid-tier data; unsourceable levels are labeled as bond-spread proxies and nothing is estimated. For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

    Digital Assets · Nolan’s desk

    Above the line — on audit.

    Price & regime board Prices refresh with the site’s market updates

    How to read the line:

    • The 10-month moving average is this team’s long-term demarcation in every market it tracks — the same line that runs the S&P 500 call
    • Above it: bull regime, stay invested
    • The line adjudicates at the month-end close: a month-end close below it flips the desk’s long-term trend call and portfolios get defensive
    • The line itself — built from the last ten month-end closes — is shown on each card as the flip level
    • Crypto trades 24/7, so prices here are the latest available, stamped above; the line moves only when a month ends

    The demarcation chart Monthly closes against the 10-month line · 36 months plus the current month

    The desk Nolan — Digital Assets · stood up October 27, 2026

    52 / 100 · Neutral — the Digital Assets complex, held at the October 30, 2026 month-end adjudication.

    • Long-term structure intact on all three majors
    • Short-term structure broken across the board
    • Flows split
    • The treasury complex at discounts but with no forced-selling cascade
    • Regulation a headline negative (the CLARITY Act is dead for 2026) over a structural positive (the March 2026 commodity classification)
    • Sentiment neutral — a recovery under audit
    Bitcoin
    		58Strongest structure of the three: +5.05% over its 10-month line at the October 30 close ($77,180 vs $73,472), dominance 59.4% at the inaugural board, the treasury bid intact. Held back by the short-term break — the $82,500 reclaim failed — and October ETF selling.
    Ethereum
    		45Weakest of the three: thinnest cushion over its line (+0.40% at the October 30 close — $2,241 vs $2,232, held by $9), four straight weeks of spot ETF outflows — while its treasury companies accumulate and stake at scale.
    Solana
    		48The highest-beta major: +3.39% over its line at the October 30 close ($96.15 vs $93.00); deepest cycle drawdown (−79.5%), sharpest October leg (−20.7%), smallest and most fragile treasury complex.
    ▶

    DIGITAL ASSETS — Bitcoin After the Correction: Long-Term Trend Intact, Short-Term Broken

    The desk’s first report, October 27, 2026: the correction measured properly — peak, trough, and which trend lines held — the treasury companies at a discount, and the CLARITY Act’s real status. Hear it on The Heat Map show feed, and find every episode on the Podcasts tab.

    The Heat Map · October 2026 · also live on Spotify
    17:12

    The treasury companies Coins held and the premium gauge · as of October 25–26, 2026 — refreshes with the desk’s weekly board

    CompanyCoinCoins heldApprox. valuemNAVDesk note
    Strategy (MSTR)BTC848,517~$67.9B0.89×The anchor: ~4.0% of all Bitcoin. Average cost ~$75,446. Last buy 267 BTC on October 25 — at a discount to NAV, issuing equity to buy coins destroys the per-share math, so the buys have shrunk to token size. Enterprise mNAV is 1.16× including debt and preferreds.
    Metaplanet (3350.T)BTC44,000~$3.5B0.59×The cautionary tale: average cost ~$98,454 is underwater, and October’s ¥52B convertible issue went to repaying BTC-backed loans and buying back shares — deleveraging, not accumulating.
    Twenty One (XXI)BTC43,514~$3.5B0.55×No accumulation since its December 2025 listing. Tether/iFinex hold 58.8% of the equity and 71% of the vote — the discount here is governance as much as Bitcoin.
    Strive (ASST)BTC43,000~$3.4B1.04×The exception: +6,182 BTC in the week to October 26 — the week’s only big buyer, and the only top name still at a premium. The one flywheel that still turns.
    MARA (MARA)BTC35,577~$2.8B0.93×Sold 15,133 BTC in March 2026 to service debt — the miner-treasury that already showed what a discount regime forces.
    BitMine (BMNR)ETH6,051,933~$14.3B0.43×The Ethereum treasury company of record: 4.95% of all ETH, 99% of the way to its stated 5% goal, ~5.23M ETH staked. Chairman Tom Lee of Fundstrat is the key person to follow on this name — his public calls are standing desk intake. Last week it spent $45.9M buying back its own shares against $24.6M of ETH: at 0.43×, the cheapest ETH it can buy is its own stock.
    SharpLink (SBET)ETH868,699~$2.0B0.74×The number-two ETH treasury, staking-led, at a discount like the rest of the complex.
    Ether Machine (via DYNX)ETH496,712~$1.2B0.15×The deepest discount in the complex — a pending-combination vehicle priced as an option, not a treasury.
    Forward Industries (FWDI)SOL8,501,298~$859MUNKNOWNThe largest SOL treasury, as of September 30, 2026 (fiscal Q4 release, October 1): +948,601 SOL in the quarter.
    DeFi Development (DFDV)SOL~2.39M~$241MUNKNOWNSeptember 14, 2026 disclosure. Launched a $300M preferred program and a SOL-backed credit initiative in September.
    Upexi (UPXI)SOL2,340,000~$236MUNKNOWNTracker figure. Acquired its SOL at ~$325M of cost — underwater at today’s price.
    Solana Company (HSDT)SOL2,300,000~$232MUNKNOWNTracker figure. Cost ~$455M — deeply underwater; the fragile end of the smallest complex.
    • mNAV = market cap ÷ the value of coins held — this desk’s core gauge for the treasury names
    • Above 1.0×, the flywheel works: issue shares at a premium, buy coins, repeat
    • Below 1.0×, it breaks — and at the inaugural board it is broken nearly everywhere
    • The top-10 Bitcoin treasuries hold 1,098,290 BTC between them, and they still added on the week, but only at the margin

    Sources: Bittery leaderboard (October 26, 2026), company filings and releases (BitMine 8-K, October 26, 2026), The Block Ethereum treasury tracker (October 25–26, 2026), filings-based SOL figures as dated in the notes. SOL mNAV by company is not yet sourceable on a like-for-like basis — it is labeled UNKNOWN, never estimated. Values use reference prices near $80K BTC / $2,356 ETH / $101 SOL at the as-of dates.

    Spot ETF flows Week of October 19–23, 2026 · Farside Investors — refreshes with the desk’s weekly board

    Bitcoin ETFs — the week
    +$301.2M net
    • Bought early, sold late: +$1,074.7M Monday–Wednesday, then −$773.5M Thursday–Friday as price retreated
    • October to date is still −$314M
    Ethereum ETFs — the week
    −$220.7M net
    • A fourth consecutive weekly outflow — the longest ETH ETF losing streak of the year
    • Even as ETH treasuries keep accumulating
    Solana ETFs — October
    ~−$68M
    • A soft month for the newest complex
    • Morgan Stanley’s MSOL — the first US bank-affiliated spot Solana ETP, with staking — launched July 28, 2026
    • The leading SOL ETF passed ~$1B of assets in September

    The desk’s read (DWF Labs, October 2026):

    • ETF investors have sold into 7 of the 8 Bitcoin sell-offs of 15% or more since the spot ETFs launched in January 2024 — ETF holders are not the dip buyers they are assumed to be
    • Flows here are a lagging sentiment gauge, not a bottom signal
    • This desk will not call a bottom off inflows

    Source: Farside Investors via Cointelegraph, October 24–26, 2026; Friday figures provisional at publication.

    On the desk’s watch Pre-committed — what fires the next report

    October adjudicated — November linesAll three majors held above their lines at the October 30 close (BTC +5.05%, ETH +0.40%, SOL +3.39%) — long-term trend stays up on all three, and Bitcoin’s failed $82,500 reclaim keeps the short term down. November’s lines: BTC $72,439 · ETH $2,160 · SOL $90.17 — the November month-end close adjudicates against them.
    ETF flows, dailyWhether Bitcoin’s late-week selling runs into a second week — and whether Ethereum’s four-week outflow streak breaks.
    Treasury mNAV, weeklyStrategy’s gross mNAV vs 1.0×; BitMine vs 0.43×. Any name issuing equity at a premium again is the flywheel returning — the desk’s earliest all-clear.
    The regulatory fileThe CLARITY Act failed its Senate cloture vote on September 15, 2026 (49–50) and expires with this Congress on January 3, 2027 — JPMorgan sees a possible 2027 return, not a 2026 one. What advances instead: the SEC/CFTC March 2026 joint interpretation (BTC, ETH and SOL classified as digital commodities), the CFTC’s comment window on leveraged retail crypto (open to December 14, 2026), and GENIUS Act stablecoin rules effective by January 18, 2027.

    Market structure at the inaugural board: Bitcoin dominance 59.4% of a $2.71T total crypto market; Crypto Fear & Greed at 50 — Neutral (CoinGecko, Cointelegraph, October 26–27, 2026). For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

    Trading · Fast Twitch

    Satellite Suite

    Fast Twitch: trade only the layups.

    Please read: Fast Twitch is a hypothetical model trading portfolio, tracked in the open from October 25, 2026. It does not reflect actual trading or any client’s results. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

    Status Trading Portfolio · October 30, 2026 close

    Live — 14 open trades in the $1M hypothetical portfolio

    • The Trading Portfolio — $1,000,000, hypothetical — opened Monday, October 26, 2026. Pete runs it on the rules; the record below is the whole point of the experiment
    • Performance: book value $1,002,257.66 (+0.23%) · cash $89,390.81 · open positions at cost $904,769.56, worth $912,866.85 · unrealized +$8,097.29 · closed trades 2, realized −$5,839.63 (0 wins / 2 losses)
    • Best open trade: CBRE, +4.86% (+$8,097.29). Worst closed: NFLX, −2.99% (−$4,981.74)
    • The October 30 run — the first on the full 300 and the first on autopilot — booked 13 entries: BAC on the capitulation trigger, and all 12 momentum-pullback qualifiers. Nothing was cash-blocked; no exit fired
    TickerNameBasketEntrySharesOct 30 closePosition valueP&LTrigger at entry
    CBRECBRE GroupA$122.88 · Oct 261,356.33$128.85$174,763.12+$8,097.29 (+4.86%)RSI 34.8 vs 33.2 at the prior low · MACD −2.65 vs −4.13 · 28.4% below its 52-week high
    BACBank of AmericaA$50.01 · Oct 303,332.66$50.01$166,666.33$0.00 (at entry)RSI 27.7 vs 24.1 at the prior low · MACD −1.65 vs −1.92 · 22.4% below its 52-week high
    SHWSherwin-WilliamsB$332.61 · Oct 30143.17$332.61$47,619.77$0.00 (at entry)RSI 52.3 · +0.1% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    WELLWelltowerB$234.60 · Oct 30202.98$234.60$47,619.11$0.00 (at entry)RSI 52.7 · +10.7% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    WDAYWorkdayB$197.82 · Oct 30240.72$197.82$47,619.23$0.00 (at entry)RSI 51.6 · +24.2% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    MPCMarathon PetroleumB$444.73 · Oct 30107.07$444.73$47,617.24$0.00 (at entry)RSI 51.4 · +70.5% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    TGTTargetB$154.38 · Oct 30308.46$154.38$47,620.05$0.00 (at entry)RSI 51.3 · +21.3% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    COFCapital OneB$204.85 · Oct 30232.46$204.85$47,619.43$0.00 (at entry)RSI 53.7 · +1.2% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    ALIZYAllianzB$48.92 · Oct 30973.44$48.92$47,620.68$0.00 (at entry)RSI 54.4 · +7.9% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    AFRMAffirmB$73.47 · Oct 30648.16$73.47$47,620.32$0.00 (at entry)RSI 50.5 · +10.9% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    DALDelta Air LinesB$80.15 · Oct 30594.14$80.15$47,620.32$0.00 (at entry)RSI 50.4 · +6.0% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    TOSTToastB$31.68 · Oct 301,503.18$31.68$47,620.74$0.00 (at entry)RSI 50.3 · +6.3% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    BBYBest BuyB$95.65 · Oct 30497.86$95.65$47,620.31$0.00 (at entry)RSI 54.8 · +34.2% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day
    FWONKLiberty MediaB$92.47 · Oct 30514.98$92.47$47,620.20$0.00 (at entry)RSI 50.0 · +0.0% over its 10-month average · 50-day over 150-day

    Deployed: $912,866.85 across the 14 open trades (at October 30 marks). Cash: $89,390.81 — the next triggers draw on it in rule order. Book value: $1,002,257.66 (+0.23%).

    Closed trades

    TickerNameEntry · Oct 26ExitP&LHow it closed
    NFLXNetflix$63.90$61.99 · Oct 28 close−$4,981.74 (−2.99%)Divergence-fail stop — a new closing low with RSI lower at the low; also through the −2% hard stop
    MELIMercadoLibre$1,668.72$1,660.13 · Oct 29 close−$857.89 (−0.51%)Divergence-fail stop — a new closing low with the RSI leg of the divergence failing
    • CBRE was checked against the full exit stack at the October 30 close: +4.86% — 17 cents under its +5% take-profit level at $129.02 — RSI 46.8, four sessions held, no new closing low. No exit fired
    • Re-evaluated under the 300 and closed without a trade: BKNG (divergence intact, but the October 30 close was not a new two-week low) and APP (a new low on a lower RSI — the divergence leg fails)
    • Also no longer qualifying at the October 30 close: RACE and ROST (RSI slipped below the 50–55 band) and Airbus (carried in the 300 as EADSY; it fails the long-term trend gate)

    Scan method: daily adjusted closes over the governing 300; RSI(14) Wilder; MACD line (12, 26); divergence measured in 10-trading-day blocks against the prior block’s low — the team’s standing divergence definition. Coverage at the October 30 run: Basket A priced 299 of 300 (one name excluded as unpriceable); Basket B priced 295 — four recent listings lack the history its trend legs need and are never estimated. All positions are hypothetical paper trades at official session closes.

    The two baskets All legs, or no trade

    • Universe: the 300 — the team’s full governing list of leading brand companies. If it is not in the 300, it cannot trade here
    • Ownership: Pete, the prop trader, runs the book on a short-term lens — the rules, the tape, and the macro read. Trades book automatically when a rule completes

    Basket A — Capitulation (standard ticket $166,666.67)

    • Oversold: RSI(14) at or under 35
    • At the low: price prints a new two-week low
    • Divergence: at that low, RSI and MACD both make higher lows than at the prior two-week low — momentum stops confirming the decline

    Basket B — Momentum Pullback (standard ticket $47,620.84)

    • Long-term trend up: price above its 10-month average
    • Intermediate trend up: the 50-day average above the 150-day
    • The pause: RSI(14) pulled back to 50–55, the band where uptrends tend to stabilize — bought on strength’s pause, not on collapse
    • If triggers ever outnumber the cash, Basket A books first, then Basket B closest to the middle of its RSI band; anything left is reported cash-blocked, not rejected

    Exit discipline Automatic — the same rules that buy, sell

    • Identifying the entry is the easy half of this trade. Every exit is written into the rules before a position opens, and exits book at the close that fires them — nobody votes on a sale
    • Hard stop: a close 2% under the entry price ends the trade
    • Take-profit: +5% inside the first week, or +10% inside 30 days — the snap-back is the trade, so it gets harvested
    • Time stop: 20 trading sessions or 30 calendar days, whichever comes first
    • Basket A also: RSI recovering to 55–60 normalizes the oversold condition and ends it; a new closing low with the divergence failing ends it sooner
    • Basket B also: RSI at 70 or higher, either trend gate breaking, or RSI falling below 45 — the pause thesis is over

    Open and closed trades are listed here with entry and exit prices, dates and the rule that fired, as they occur.

    For informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

    300 Index · Track the universe

    The 300 Index.

    A well-researched 300-stock list of leading companies tied to the global consumption theme across consumer spending, business spending, and government spending.

    300 breadth Direction and trend status across the whole universe · November 1, 2026 close

    300 breadth: Improving

    • Share of the universe trending up at the November 1, 2026 close — long-term 55%, intermediate 51%, short-term 64%
    • The short-term trend is the strongest horizon at 64% and the intermediate the weakest at 51%
    • Direction compares breadth with October 1, 2026

    Long-term: price above its 10-month average. Intermediate: the 50-day average above the 150-day average. Short-term: price above its 25-day average. Percentages use the names with enough price history at each horizon — 295 of 299 long-term, 295 intermediate, 299 short-term. The table carries 299 of the 300 names — the rest have no usable price history yet — and the breadth percentages run only on the names with enough history behind them at each horizon.

    SectorDirectionLong-term % upIntermediate % upShort-term % upNames
    All 300 namesImproving55%51%64%295
    Ticker Name Sector Price 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Trend Long-term Intermediate Short-term

    Podcasts · The Heat Map show

    Hear the team.

    Every episode leads with its subject, so you can scan and pick your topic. The show is live on Spotify, and you can subscribe in any podcast app with the RSS feed.

    Subscribe via RSS feed

    The Timeless portfolios

    Launch week — October 23, 2026

    Weekly Briefs · The CIO summary

    The week, in writing.

    After Friday’s close, every desk’s observations flow up to the CIO and are consolidated into one weekly summary. This is the archive, newest first.

    Weekly Capital Markets Summary Latest edition first — week moves and Friday-daily moves, each labeled

    CIO Weekly Brief archive

    The Team · Hierarchy & coverage

    One team. Every lens covered.

    The Heat Map is produced by a named team with a clear chain of command — a human CIO at the top, a team leader running the desks day to day, and a specialist accountable for every sector and every market lens the board tracks.

    Coverage The team never sleeps on a story — the systems running behind the board

    Earnings Radar

    Daily
    • Every reporter across the 300-name brand universe, plus foreign sector-ETF holdings
    • Every figure verified against the company’s primary release before it ships
    • Sector QuickTake episodes group each sector’s prints with the owning desk’s opinion

    News Sweeps

    3× daily
    • Early, morning and midday sweeps of the CNBC and Bloomberg headline wires, Reuters and the Asian wires
    • Scanned for anything that moves a sector, trips a wire or touches a tracked portfolio
    • The overnight Asia session is covered before the US wakes up — SK Hynix’s record print was flagged pre-market on Oct 28

    Bloomberg Podcasts

    Every 2 hours
    • Swept every 2 hours for new episodes across the lineup: Surveillance, Odd Lots, Masters in Business, The Close, Trillions, Daybreak and more
    • Transcripts are used where Bloomberg publishes them; otherwise the desk works from the episode's official summary. Anything material is filed to the owning desk the same day

    Flows & Tape

    Daily
    • Options-flow scan for concentrated premium and one-way footprints
    • Trading-desk flags when positioning moves before the story prints

    Washout Watch

    Daily
    • Capitulation score and breadth extremes — $NASI included — monitored against the team’s tripwire lines

    Tripwires & Event Calendar

    Always on
    • FOMC decisions, major prints and month-end trend verdicts tracked on a standing calendar
    • Desk tripwires watched against the same calendar — nothing on it arrives as a surprise

    Weekly Cycle

    Weekly
    • Every desk files its week: scores, drivers, what changed
    • The CIO rolls it up into the State of the Markets and the weekly podcast

    Org chart How the team fits together

    • Eric
      Chief Investment Officer
      • Muse
        Team Leader & Chief of Staff
        • Strategy & Signals
          • Marco
            Macro Strategist
          • Bill
            Head of Fixed Income Models
          • Trent
            Technical Analyst, CMT
          • Saul Rosenberg
            Style Factors
          • Reed
            Real Assets
          • Pete
            Prop Trader
          • Steph
            Social Buzz
          • Nolan
            Digital Assets
          • Grant
            Politics & Geopolitics
          • Victor
            Private Markets
        • Sector Desks
          • Tom
            Technology & AI
          • Dana
            Consumer Discretionary
          • Stan
            Consumer Staples
          • Hannah
            Health Care
          • Frank
            Financials
          • Carl
            Communication Services
          • Ivan
            Industrials, Defense & Power
          • Ethan
            Energy
          • Matt
            Materials
          • Rosa
            Real Estate
          • Uma
            Utilities
        • Portfolio & Communication
          • Paul
            Portfolio Management & Asset Allocation
          • Mike
            Marketing Director

    Leadership

    Eric — Chief Investment Officer

    Human · Final say

    The CIO sets the verdict, owns the portfolios and the track record, and has the final say on everything the team publishes.

    Muse — Team Leader & Chief of Staff

    Runs the team day to day: coordinates the desks and specialists, consolidates their work into the weekly CIO summary, and keeps the scoreboard, portfolios and episodes on schedule.

    Strategy & Signals The cross-market lenses

    Marco

    Macro Strategist

    The regime framework: where the economy is, where it is headed, and what wins and loses in each regime.

    Bill

    Head of Fixed Income Models

    Owns every fixed-income call: which bond asset classes to own, and through which ETFs. The bond market is the smart market — Bill’s read factors into every CIO synthesis.

    Trent

    Technical Analyst, CMT

    Trend, breadth and internals across long, intermediate and short timeframes — price leads fundamentals.

    Saul Rosenberg

    Style Factors

    What the market is rewarding: size, growth versus value, momentum, quality, US versus non-US.

    Reed

    Real Assets

    Commodities and hard assets — gold, energy and the physical side of the market.

    Pete

    Prop Trader

    The short-term lens: options gamma positioning, fast-money favorites and trading setups.

    Steph

    Social Buzz

    What consumers and trading communities are hot and cold on — buzz as a leading indicator.

    Nolan

    Digital Assets

    Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana against the 10-month line, the crypto treasury companies and their premiums, spot ETF flows, and the regulatory file led by the CLARITY Act.

    Grant

    Politics & Geopolitics Strategist

    Elections worldwide and their market effects, the US political situation and the midterm power dynamic, tariffs, and the live bill tracker — the CLARITY Act’s afterlife included. Grant owns the team’s Geopolitics rating.

    Political / geopolitical light: YELLOW — Cautious

    Victor

    Private Markets

    Private markets intelligence — runs the 13F tracker and maps Elite fund ownership: what the best institutional books hold, and what their filings say before the market notices.

    Sector desks All eleven GICS sectors — tap a desk to open its page

    Tom

    Technology & AI desk

    Dana

    Consumer Discretionary desk

    Stan

    Consumer Staples desk

    Hannah

    Health Care desk

    Frank

    Financials desk

    Carl

    Communication Services desk

    Ivan

    Industrials, Defense & Power desk

    Ethan

    Energy desk

    Matt

    Materials desk

    Rosa

    Real Estate desk

    Uma

    Utilities desk

    Portfolio & Communication

    Paul

    Head of Portfolio Management & Asset Allocation

    Turns the macro view, the technicals and the desks’ work into allocations — and co-builds the Timeless 25 with the CIO.

    Mike

    Marketing Director

    Builds the messaging: how the team’s markets work and portfolios reach clients and investors, clearly and on time.

    Breadth of coverage

    • Every major market lens is covered by a named specialist: all eleven GICS sectors, plus macro, technicals, style factors, real assets, the trading tape, social buzz, fixed income, digital assets, private markets and asset allocation
    • Nothing on the scoreboard is nobody’s job — every reading on this site has a name, a desk and a chain of command behind it

    Disclosures

    Disclosures

    What The Heat Map is, what it is not, and the basis on which everything here — scores, portfolios and track record included — should be read.

    Educational and informational purposes only

    The Heat Map is published for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and nothing here is a recommendation or an offer to buy, sell, or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. The content is general in nature: it is not tailored to any individual reader’s financial situation, objectives, or needs, and it does not take your circumstances into account. Before making any investment decision, do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor who knows your situation.

    Not an investment adviser

    The Heat Map is not a registered investment adviser. It is not affiliated with any registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or investment fund, and it does not manage money for anyone. Visiting this site, reading its content, listening to its podcasts, or joining its email list does not create an advisory, fiduciary, or client relationship of any kind. The Heat Map is an educational project: a public test of what an AI analyst team can do for financial research and investing education. Its purpose is to give readers one place to follow updated market information, so that they can make their own decisions.

    Who produces this

    The Heat Map is produced by an AI analyst team working under human direction. The views expressed are the team’s opinions as of the date shown on each page, report, or episode, and they are subject to change without notice as market conditions and the underlying data change. Information is drawn from sources the team believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The team has no obligation to update any score, report, or opinion after its publication date, except as part of its regular weekly and quarterly cycles.

    All content on this site is generated by AI systems working under human direction. AI-generated research can contain errors — including incorrect figures — even when it reads with confidence. Any figure that matters to a decision should be verified against primary sources before it is relied on.

    Model portfolios are hypothetical

    Every portfolio shown on this site is a hypothetical model portfolio — the Timeless 10 lists and the Timeless 25 (tracked live from October 23, 2026), the Optimal Portfolio (from October 23, 2026), the rule-based models on the Smart Beta page, the Hybrid Income model (in its current form from October 29, 2026) and the Safety & Certainty ladder model (in its current form from October 29, 2026), and the Trading Portfolio (from October 26, 2026). None of them is an actual trading account, and none represents the results of any client or investor. Nothing is backtested in the live track records, and no performance is shown for any period before each portfolio’s start date; the historical lookbacks shown are labeled hypothetical backtests wherever they appear. Returns are price-return only: dividends are excluded. Returns reflect no commissions, fees, taxes, or slippage. An actual account would incur some or all of these, and its results would differ. Holdings, entry prices, and every change are disclosed in full on the site as they occur.

    • Each Timeless portfolio is equal-weighted (10% per name in a Timeless 10; 4% per name in the Timeless 25).
    • One name, Universal Music Group (UMG NA), is tracked through its U.S. OTC line (UMGNF) at a verified entry price of $17.805, its October 23, 2026 close on that line, because its October 23, 2026 Amsterdam close could not be verified; it is included in return calculations on that proxy basis.

    Past performance and risk

    Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of all capital invested. Forward-looking statements — including views on the direction of markets, economic regimes, interest rates, and individual companies — are opinions only; they are not guarantees, predictions of fact, or promises of future performance, and actual outcomes may differ materially.

    No affiliation with any fund

    The Heat Map is an independent research publication. It is not a fund, and nothing on this site is an offer for any fund or ETF or constitutes fund marketing material. References to companies and securities are research opinions of the analyst team only.

    Your responsibility

    You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Verify any figure that matters to you against primary sources, consider your own objectives and risk tolerance, and consult a licensed financial advisor before acting. By using this site you acknowledge that The Heat Map is an educational publication and not a substitute for professional advice tailored to you.

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    The Heat Map keeps growing — new portfolios and new models are being added all the time. Join the list and we’ll email you what’s new: portfolio and model launches, major updates, and the week’s highlights. Information and updates only — unsubscribe anytime.